Sat, Oct 28, 2017·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
New York Islanders 6, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 17 | 211 | 35 | 623 |
| NSH | 06 | 112 | 112 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:21NYIJordan EberlePPAssists: Ryan Pulock, Anthony Beauvillier · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 3:55NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Kevin Fiala, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 9:49NYIRyan PulockPPAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Brock Nelson · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 19:30NYIJordan EberleGWGAssists: Mathew Barzal, Brock Nelson · Snap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 0:12NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Anders Lee · Snap, 0.25 xG4–1
- P3 2:52NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Anders Lee, Jordan Eberle · Deflected, 0.13 xG5–1
- P3 7:26NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Nick Leddy, Josh Bailey · Slap, 0.07 xG6–1
- P3 13:57NSHCraig SmithPPAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Colton Sissons · Snap, 0.04 xG6–2
Penalties (15)
- P1 2:39NSHRyan Johansen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:58NYIAnders Lee: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:58NSHScott Hartnell: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P1 19:31NYIAdam Pelech: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:38NYICasey Cizikas: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:38NSHFilip Forsberg: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:43NSHAnthony Bitetto: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:49NSHScott Hartnell: Bench2 min
- P3 0:16NYIAnders Lee: Interference2 min
- P3 6:11NSHMiikka Salomaki: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:01NYIJason Chimera: Interference2 min
- P3 11:59NYIJohnny Boychuk: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 18:22NYIBrock Nelson: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:22NSHAustin Watson: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:57NSHP.K. Subban: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Tavares – Lee8:14
xG 0.56–0.40 (58%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Eberle – Nelson – Barzal8:17
xG 0.29–0.25 (54%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Chimera – Ladd – Cizikas7:31
xG 0.19–0.15 (56%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Kulemin – Beauvillier6:31
xG 0.07–0.07 (50%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock9:27
xG 0.32–0.16 (66%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Leddy12:56
xG 0.48–0.36 (57%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – de Haan12:35
xG 0.25–0.13 (65%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestWatson – Johansen – Salomaki5:20
xG 0.19–0.02 (88%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Smith – Gaudreau7:32
xG 0.20–0.08 (72%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Johansen – Forsberg – Fiala4:19
xG 0.33–0.22 (60%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Watson – Salomaki2:05
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEmelin – Subban11:10
xG 0.24–0.14 (63%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Josi – Ekholm12:54
xG 0.66–0.57 (53%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
- Weber – Bitetto13:18
xG 0.17–0.35 (33%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).