Sat, Oct 28, 2017·Pepsi Center, Denver
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Colorado Avalanche 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 08 | 213 | 121 | 342 |
| COL | 313 | 210 | 15 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:24COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 15:20COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P1 19:56COLMikko RantanenPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.43 xG0–3
- P2 2:56COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–4
- P2 6:44COLSven AndrighettoAssists: Rocco Grimaldi, Tyson Barrie · Slap, 0.03 xG0–5
- P2 7:53CHINick SchmaltzAssists: Michal Kempny, John Hayden · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–5
- P2 14:05CHIArtem AnisimovAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Michal Kempny · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–5
- P3 8:45COLRocco GrimaldiAssists: Erik Johnson, Sven Andrighetto · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–6
- P3 15:05CHIRyan HartmanAssists: Tommy Wingels, Lance Bouma · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:58COLTyson Barrie: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 6:52COLPatrik Nemeth: Holding2 min
- P1 11:50CHIMichal Kempny: Holding2 min
- P1 14:22CHIJan Rutta: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:24CHIRyan Hartman: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 3:10COLA.J. Greer: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:10CHIBrent Seabrook: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:29COLBlake Comeau: Holding2 min
- P2 19:27CHIJonathan Toews: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:30COLNail Yakupov: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:10COLAndrei Mironov: Clipping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Panik – Saad8:39
xG 0.81–0.32 (72%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Bouma – Wingels – DeBrincat4:01
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Kane – Hayden – Schmaltz8:50
xG 0.61–0.37 (62%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- Sharp – Anisimov – Bouma2:13
xG 0.06–0.07 (44%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Franson5:26
xG 0.56–0.12 (82%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Kempny – Rutta2:04
xG 0.44–0.03 (94%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Seabrook – Rutta2:27
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen7:54
xG 0.74–0.79 (48%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Nieto7:20
xG 0.22–0.28 (44%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
- Duchene – Grimaldi – Andrighetto7:38
xG 0.14–0.22 (40%)attempts 8–8goals 2–1
- Yakupov – Kerfoot – Greer4:45
xG 0.07–0.47 (14%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Mironov2:47
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Barberio – Mironov3:23
xG 0.21–0.06 (78%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Lindholm2:23
xG 0.46–0.37 (55%)attempts 3–6goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).