Sat, Oct 28, 2017·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Washington Capitals 5, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 112 | 112 | 37 | 531 |
| EDM | 216 | 014 | 010 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:16EDMPatrick MaroonAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 17:55EDMAdam LarssonAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan Strome · Snap, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 19:42WSHDevante Smith-PellyAssists: John Carlson, Alex Ovechkin · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 10:32WSHLars EllerAssists: Madison Bowey, Alex Ovechkin · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 0:30WSHEvgeny KuznetsovGWGAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Madison Bowey · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 15:56WSHEvgeny KuznetsovUnassisted · Backhand, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 19:41WSHJay BeagleENAssists: Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.67 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:53WSHAnthony Peluso: Interference2 min
- P1 13:11EDMPatrick Maroon: Delaying game2 min
- P1 13:11WSHAnthony Peluso: Delaying game2 min
- P2 14:10WSHLars Eller: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:25WSHLars Eller: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 17:22WSHLars Eller: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Wilson – Stephenson8:37
xG 1.26–0.37 (77%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Smith-Pelly11:46
xG 0.99–0.48 (67%)attempts 18–12goals 2–0
- Peluso – Beagle – Chiasson4:16
xG 0.05–0.16 (24%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Vrana11:43
xG 0.39–0.92 (30%)attempts 12–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Orlov3:24
xG 1.06–0.36 (75%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Orpik – Bowey3:26
xG 0.40–0.21 (66%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Orlov – Bowey8:38
xG 0.30–0.13 (69%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Nugent-Hopkins – Strome12:00
xG 1.21–0.76 (61%)attempts 21–13goals 1–2
- Jokinen – Khaira – Slepyshev6:47
xG 0.50–0.10 (83%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Letestu – Kassian – Caggiula9:39
xG 0.12–0.65 (16%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- Maroon – Draisaitl – McDavid12:59
xG 0.78–1.61 (33%)attempts 13–21goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenning – Nurse12:04
xG 0.88–0.31 (74%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Russell – Benning2:58
xG 0.34–0.08 (80%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Larsson – Nurse2:13
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).