Sun, Oct 29, 2017·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Anaheim Ducks 4, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 27 | 05 | 112 | 01 | 1 | 425 |
| CAR | 19 | 211 | 08 | 09 | 0 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:48ANAOndrej KaseAssists: Nick Ritchie · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 17:14ANADerek GrantAssists: Andrew Cogliano · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P1 19:53CARJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Justin Williams, Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–1
- P2 13:33CARJordan StaalAssists: Sebastian Aho, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–2
- P2 18:33CARJustin FaulkAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Justin Williams · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 15:12ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Hampus Lindholm · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CAR Justin Williams stopped
- 2. ANA Rickard Rakell stopped
- 3. CAR Jaccob Slavin stopped
- 4. ANA Corey Perry scored
- 5. CAR Sebastian Aho stopped
Penalties (3)
- P1 5:54ANAJosh Manson: Interference2 min
- P1 18:10ANAJosh Manson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 14:22ANANick Ritchie: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Grant – Ritchie – Kase4:57
xG 0.15–0.11 (57%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Perry – Rakell – Ritchie6:10
xG 0.47–0.51 (48%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Grant – Wagner – Kase5:10
xG 0.19–0.36 (34%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Wagner – Shaw – Rasmussen3:45
xG 0.01–0.26 (4%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Holzer – Lindholm15:56
xG 0.41–0.45 (48%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Montour19:14
xG 0.89–1.14 (44%)attempts 16–20goals 1–0
- Manson – Lindholm3:05
xG 0.02–0.31 (7%)attempts 1–6goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestKruger – Nordstrom – McGinn8:35
xG 0.72–0.22 (76%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Williams – Rask – Teravainen12:05
xG 0.53–0.34 (61%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Skinner – Ryan – Kuokkanen9:31
xG 0.49–0.39 (56%)attempts 10–6goals 0–3
- Staal – Lindholm – Aho13:33
xG 0.70–0.69 (50%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce19:57
xG 1.07–0.15 (88%)attempts 20–11goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Fleury4:45
xG 0.15–0.09 (64%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Faulk – Hanifin7:03
xG 0.28–0.28 (50%)attempts 10–4goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).