Mon, Oct 30, 2017·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Vegas Golden Knights 3, New York Islanders 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 215 | 011 | 18 | 334 |
| NYI | 110 | 213 | 37 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:31VGKWilliam KarlssonSHAssists: Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–0
- P1 13:50NYIAndrew LaddAssists: Nick Leddy, Johnny Boychuk · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 15:46VGKAlex TuchPPAssists: Colin Miller, Brad Hunt · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 14:50NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Nick Leddy, Josh Bailey · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–2
- P2 17:44NYIMathew BarzalPPAssists: Anders Lee, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 4:44NYICal ClutterbuckGWGAssists: Dennis Seidenberg, Nikolay Kulemin · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 8:26NYINikolay KuleminAssists: Dennis Seidenberg · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–5
- P3 12:38NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Josh Bailey, Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–6
- P3 14:41VGKColin MillerPPAssists: Brad Hunt, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:23VGKErik Haula: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 8:28VGKDavid Perron: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:48NYIDennis Seidenberg: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:29NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:29VGKJames Neal: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:09VGKJames Neal: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:03VGKReilly Smith: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:28NYICasey Cizikas: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:59NYIAnders Lee: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 16:49NYIDennis Seidenberg: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:32
xG 0.97–0.54 (64%)attempts 18–10goals 0–2
- Neal – Perron – Eakin11:08
xG 0.34–0.36 (49%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Carrier – Bellemare – Nosek5:54
xG 0.06–0.17 (28%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Haula – Lindberg – Tuch7:57
xG 0.16–0.44 (27%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Hunt14:55
xG 0.48–0.30 (61%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Engelland – McNabb12:21
xG 0.50–0.33 (60%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
- Sbisa – Schmidt14:08
xG 0.93–0.80 (54%)attempts 19–14goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Nelson – Barzal8:08
xG 0.50–0.27 (64%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Kulemin – Cizikas5:35
xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 4–7goals 2–0
- Chimera – Ladd – Beauvillier3:32
xG 0.25–0.23 (52%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ladd – Cizikas3:15
xG 0.06–0.12 (36%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – de Haan11:37
xG 0.84–0.67 (56%)attempts 13–14goals 2–0
- Pelech – Pulock9:28
xG 0.36–0.21 (63%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Leddy14:33
xG 0.50–0.47 (52%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).