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Ice Lab

Mon, Oct 30, 2017·Nationwide Arena, Columbus

Boston Bruins 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 4 (SO)

Away

Boston Bruins

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Columbus Blue Jackets

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.

CBJ winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
BOS0611229030330
CBJ21111009022432

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:59CBJDavid SavardAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Matt Calvert · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
  2. P1 17:08CBJBoone JennerAssists: Markus Nutivaara, Josh Anderson · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–2
  3. P2 8:27CBJTyler MotteAssists: Markus Nutivaara, Sergei Bobrovsky · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–3
  4. P2 15:37BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: Danton Heinen, David Pastrnak · Slap, 0.06 xG1–3
  5. P3 10:26BOSTorey KrugAssists: Kevan Miller, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
  6. P3 11:47BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. CBJ Alexander Wennberg stopped
  2. 2. BOS Kenny Agostino stopped
  3. 3. CBJ Artemi Panarin scored
  4. 4. BOS Brad Marchand stopped
  5. 5. CBJ Oliver Bjorkstrand scored
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 6:16BOSFrank Vatrano: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 9:04BOSTorey Krug: Holding2 min
  3. P1 11:29CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Cross checking2 min
  4. P1 12:21BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
  5. P2 0:40BOSZdeno Chara: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 0:40CBJJosh Anderson: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 5:48BOSDanton Heinen: Hooking2 min
  8. P2 14:59CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Tripping2 min · PPG
  9. P3 8:04CBJMatt Calvert: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
  10. P3 9:07BOSBrad Marchand: Tripping2 min
  11. P3 14:36CBJOliver Bjorkstrand: Boarding5 min
  12. P3 14:36BOSKevan Miller: Instigator2 min
  13. P3 14:36BOSKevan Miller: Fighting5 min
  14. P3 14:36BOSKevan Miller: Misconduct10 min
  15. P3 14:36BOSKevan Miller: Game misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CBJ
46% to win54% to win
← BOS attackCBJ attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Foligno
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSCBJ
30Shots on goal32
3.0Expected goals2.7
63Shot attempts57
27Faceoffs won34
4Power plays5
42Penalty minutes18
32Hits26
17Blocked shots19
6Giveaways7
11Takeaways12

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Boston Bruins

Forward lines

  1. bestKuraly – Schaller – Heinen2:33

    xG 0.58–0.02 (97%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0

  2. Backes – Schaller – DeBrusk10:04

    xG 0.59–0.17 (77%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0

  3. Bergeron – Marchand – Bjork5:10

    xG 0.23–0.09 (73%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0

  4. Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak7:19

    xG 0.12–0.10 (55%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestKrug – Carlo7:30

    xG 1.15–0.09 (93%)attempts 16–3goals 0–0

  2. Miller – McAvoy4:37

    xG 0.21–0.06 (76%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0

  3. Krug – McAvoy2:38

    xG 0.11–0.05 (69%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0

Columbus Blue Jackets

Forward lines

  1. bestFoligno – Anderson – Panarin8:44

    xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0

  2. Calvert – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg5:47

    xG 0.13–0.15 (46%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0

  3. Dubinsky – Jenner – Motte3:28

    xG 0.07–0.12 (36%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0

  4. Dubinsky – Jenner – Dubois4:31

    xG 0.08–1.12 (7%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestMurray – Nutivaara11:19

    xG 0.83–0.73 (53%)attempts 14–12goals 2–0

  2. Johnson – Harrington2:14

    xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0

  3. Savard – Harrington2:20

    xG 0.11–0.10 (53%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CBJ 2.7 xGBOS 3.0 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CBJBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 84/100 · #206 of 1271 this seasonSwing 1.66 · 6 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50CBJ 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +29 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.

CBJ winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (CBJ − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).