Mon, Oct 30, 2017·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Montréal Canadiens 8, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 47 | 28 | 214 | 829 |
| OTT | 211 | 18 | 09 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:21OTTTom PyattUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 4:27MTLCharles HudonPPAssists: Jeff Petry, Al Montoya · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 7:20MTLMax PaciorettySHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P1 8:15OTTRyan DzingelPPAssists: Mike Hoffman, Christopher DiDomenico · Tip-in, 0.20 xG2–2
- P1 13:17MTLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P1 16:00MTLCharles HudonGWGAssists: Shea Weber, Tomas Plekanec · Backhand, 0.26 xG4–2
- P2 10:34OTTChristopher DiDomenicoPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–3
- P2 17:41MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Jordie Benn · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–3
- P2 19:29MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.14 xG6–3
- P3 5:10MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Charles Hudon · Wrist, 0.16 xG7–3
- P3 13:24MTLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Paul Byron, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.26 xG8–3
Penalties (18)
- P1 3:18OTTJohnny Oduya: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:27MTLVictor Mete: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 17:58OTTDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:58MTLMichael McCarron: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 17:58MTLMichael McCarron: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:30MTLBrandon Davidson: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:30OTTZack Smith: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:57MTLCharles Hudon: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:20OTTMax McCormick: Misconduct10 min
- P3 3:20OTTMax McCormick: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:20OTTMax McCormick: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:20MTLMichael McCarron: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:20MTLTorrey Mitchell: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:41OTTJack Rodewald: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:05MTLMax Pacioretty: Holding2 min
- P3 14:18OTTMike Hoffman: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:14OTTAlexandre Burrows: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:58MTLJeff Petry: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestByron – Lehkonen – Drouin9:38
xG 0.92–0.39 (70%)attempts 13–11goals 2–0
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Hudon10:04
xG 0.70–0.19 (78%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Mitchell – Galchenyuk – McCarron4:43
xG 0.15–0.05 (74%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Pacioretty – Shaw – Danault11:39
xG 0.10–0.44 (18%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Mete12:49
xG 0.73–0.53 (58%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- Petry – Davidson11:35
xG 0.33–0.15 (69%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Petry – Alzner2:32
xG 0.02–0.02 (57%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Hoffman – Stone3:29
xG 0.26–0.02 (93%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Burrows – Thompson – Pyatt2:55
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Brassard – Stone – Dzingel3:21
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Thompson – Pyatt – Dzingel2:21
xG 0.01–0.12 (5%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Ceci3:13
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Claesson7:09
xG 0.30–0.18 (62%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Phaneuf – Ceci13:32
xG 0.28–0.27 (51%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).