Mon, Oct 30, 2017·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Tampa Bay Lightning 8, Florida Panthers 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 313 | 318 | 27 | 838 |
| FLA | 29 | 16 | 28 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:48TBLBrayden PointAssists: Braydon Coburn, Dan Girardi · Tip-in, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 4:55TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Steven Stamkos · Snap, 0.09 xG2–0
- P1 10:31FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P1 14:40TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Alex Killorn · Slap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P1 19:07FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Evgenii Dadonov · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P2 5:32FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Evgenii Dadonov · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–3
- P2 7:17TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Brayden Point, Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–3
- P2 9:38TBLYanni GourdePPAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–3
- P2 15:41TBLVladislav NamestnikovGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.05 xG6–3
- P3 5:32FLAJamie McGinnAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Radim Vrbata · Tip-in, 0.08 xG6–4
- P3 9:02TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Jake Dotchin, Vladislav Namestnikov · Tip-in, 0.09 xG7–4
- P3 11:29FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.09 xG7–5
- P3 19:41TBLAnton StralmanENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.58 xG8–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 13:14FLAAaron Ekblad: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:37TBLAlex Killorn: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:29TBLGabriel Dumont: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:58FLAKeith Yandle: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 12:36TBLChris Kunitz: Interference2 min
- P2 13:36FLAAaron Ekblad: Interference2 min
- P2 16:26FLAMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:26TBLBraydon Coburn: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:28FLAIan McCoshen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 13:34FLADerek MacKenzie: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dumont won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Johnson – Brown8:52
xG 0.59–0.20 (74%)attempts 17–6goals 0–1
- Kunitz – Callahan – Dumont12:12
xG 0.47–0.17 (73%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Namestnikov9:10
xG 0.50–0.24 (67%)attempts 15–6goals 3–2
- Palat – Gourde – Point9:33
xG 0.21–0.27 (44%)attempts 8–7goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Dotchin14:34
xG 0.57–0.40 (59%)attempts 13–16goals 2–2
- Stralman – Sergachev8:09
xG 0.37–0.21 (63%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Stralman – Hedman4:58
xG 0.05–0.13 (26%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov13:14
xG 0.43–0.32 (57%)attempts 10–10goals 3–0
- Vrbata – McGinn – Bjugstad2:57
xG 0.19–0.21 (48%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Trocheck – Tippett2:59
xG 0.05–0.08 (38%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Haley – Balisy – Malgin4:44
xG 0.09–0.14 (40%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Pysyk – McCoshen11:35
xG 0.22–0.25 (47%)attempts 7–10goals 1–2
- Yandle – Ekblad15:03
xG 0.32–0.61 (34%)attempts 12–17goals 1–1
- Matheson – Weegar13:46
xG 0.39–0.86 (31%)attempts 12–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).