Mon, Oct 30, 2017·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Los Angeles Kings 2, St. Louis Blues 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 012 | 27 | 09 | 228 |
| STL | 06 | 314 | 110 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:25STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 10:17STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Brayden Schenn, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–2
- P2 13:20LAKTanner PearsonAssists: Alec Martinez · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 16:19STLCarl GunnarssonGWGAssists: Scottie Upshall, Kyle Brodziak · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P2 17:17LAKDustin BrownPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar · Deflected, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 18:55STLVladimir SobotkaENAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.68 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:22STLScottie Upshall: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:51LAKKurtis MacDermid: Interference2 min
- P1 19:54LAKDerek Forbort: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 16:58STLColton Parayko: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:54STLKyle Brodziak: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:36STLJoel Edmundson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Laich – Lewis9:29
xG 0.36–0.29 (55%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo13:15
xG 0.31–0.28 (53%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Pearson – Kempe8:33
xG 0.35–0.40 (47%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Martinez – Forbort2:01
xG 0.05–0.02 (67%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Martinez8:50
xG 0.25–0.26 (48%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Forbort – Folin3:53
xG 0.15–0.20 (43%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz14:52
xG 0.99–0.51 (66%)attempts 14–15goals 2–0
- Steen – Stastny – Sobotka13:54
xG 0.44–0.30 (60%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Jaskin7:46
xG 0.39–0.27 (59%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
- Paajarvi – Bennett – Sundqvist8:12
xG 0.19–0.11 (64%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Pietrangelo16:15
xG 0.74–0.19 (80%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Bortuzzo – Dunn13:22
xG 0.49–0.28 (64%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Edmundson – Parayko15:34
xG 0.55–0.57 (49%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).