Mon, Oct 30, 2017·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Dallas Stars 2, Vancouver Canucks 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 09 | 110 | 07 | 13 | 229 |
| VAN | 016 | 011 | 111 | 01 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:11DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Alexander Radulov, Jamie Benn · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P3 6:00VANSam GagnerPPAssists: Thomas Vanek, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–1
- OT 2:32DALAlexander RadulovGWGAssists: Mattias Janmark · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:29DALAlexander Radulov: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:11VANSven Baertschi: Interference2 min
- P1 13:53DALJamie Oleksiak: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:07DALMarc Methot: Slashing2 min
- P1 0:00VANThomas Vanek: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:12VANThomas Vanek: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:18VANSven Baertschi: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:25DALMarc Methot: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 11:55VANJacob Markstrom: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestShore – Janmark – Elie5:21
xG 0.42–0.28 (60%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Spezza – Ritchie – Elie2:14
xG 0.12–0.17 (41%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin12:30
xG 0.38–0.52 (42%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Roussel – Shore – Janmark3:23
xG 0.07–0.27 (21%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Pateryn10:52
xG 0.53–0.27 (66%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Pateryn – Lindell2:35
xG 0.15–0.18 (46%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Methot – Klingberg15:36
xG 0.44–0.73 (37%)attempts 5–18goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestDorsett – Sutter – Granlund12:10
xG 0.65–0.02 (97%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Virtanen6:38
xG 0.40–0.17 (71%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Vanek – Burmistrov – Megna2:55
xG 0.11–0.02 (88%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Gagner – Baertschi – Horvat7:15
xG 0.27–0.27 (50%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hutton13:37
xG 0.85–0.17 (83%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Biega – Pouliot12:23
xG 0.54–0.02 (96%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Gudbranson12:37
xG 0.51–1.17 (30%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).