Mon, Oct 30, 2017·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 19 | 02 | 17 | 218 |
| SJS | 014 | 111 | 214 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:14TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Nikita Zaitsev, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 7:58SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Tim Heed, Joe Thornton · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 4:11SJSTim HeedPPAssists: Brent Burns, Logan Couture · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 17:47SJSJoel WardENGWGAssists: Chris Tierney, Melker Karlsson · Wrist, 0.64 xG1–3
- P3 18:50TORAndreas BorgmanAssists: Morgan Rielly, Leo Komarov · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 16:24TORMatt Martin: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:29TORNikita Zaitsev: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:57TORDominic Moore: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:05TORConnor Brown: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nylander – Matthews15:47
xG 0.91–0.66 (58%)attempts 22–14goals 1–0
- Marleau – van Riemsdyk – Marner3:02
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner8:53
xG 0.42–0.29 (59%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Brown3:19
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Zaitsev13:18
xG 0.73–0.65 (53%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Rielly – Borgman3:01
xG 0.08–0.00 (94%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Polak – Rielly3:15
xG 0.49–0.42 (53%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestBoedker – Donskoi – Tierney9:21
xG 0.35–0.04 (89%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Ward – Carpenter – Meier9:40
xG 0.44–0.15 (74%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Labanc11:07
xG 0.55–0.35 (61%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
- Couture – Hertl – Karlsson11:01
xG 0.23–0.57 (29%)attempts 4–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Heed14:02
xG 1.01–0.29 (78%)attempts 22–12goals 1–0
- Burns – Ryan18:35
xG 0.45–0.53 (46%)attempts 19–16goals 0–1
- Vlasic – Braun14:46
xG 0.39–0.80 (33%)attempts 12–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).