Tue, Oct 31, 2017·Madison Square Garden, New York
Vegas Golden Knights 4, New York Rangers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 214 | 215 | 05 | 434 |
| NYR | 19 | 118 | 411 | 638 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:45NYRJimmy VeseyAssists: David Desharnais, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 5:22VGKOscar LindbergAssists: Alex Tuch, Deryk Engelland · Snap, 0.25 xG1–1
- P1 19:21VGKReilly SmithAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Colin Miller · Slap, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 1:29NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Rick Nash, Kevin Hayes · Snap, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 7:06VGKReilly SmithAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 18:59VGKDavid PerronUnassisted · Snap, 0.35 xG4–2
- P3 5:31NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Mats Zuccarello · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 9:26NYRPavel BuchnevichAssists: Mika Zibanejad · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–4
- P3 14:11NYRMika ZibanejadPPGWGAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–5
- P3 18:46NYRMichael GrabnerENAssists: Jesper Fast · Wrist, 0.58 xG4–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 16:43VGKAlex Tuch: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:27NYRBrady Skjei: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:23VGKJonathan Marchessault: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:20NYRBoo Nieves: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:59NYRKevin Hayes: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 2:21NYRMichael Grabner: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 4:51VGKDavid Perron: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:51VGKDavid Perron: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:17VGKColin Miller: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault10:48
xG 1.67–0.54 (76%)attempts 18–7goals 2–1
- Carrier – Bellemare – Nosek6:55
xG 0.41–0.18 (70%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Haula – Lindberg – Tuch9:51
xG 0.54–0.36 (60%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Neal – Perron – Eakin11:04
xG 0.74–1.23 (38%)attempts 10–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Merrill12:59
xG 1.75–0.79 (69%)attempts 25–10goals 1–1
- Sbisa – Schmidt16:37
xG 1.20–1.00 (55%)attempts 13–18goals 1–1
- Miller – Theodore11:46
xG 0.71–0.67 (52%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGrabner – Fast – Nieves8:12
xG 1.00–0.17 (86%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich10:27
xG 0.70–0.47 (60%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Nash – Zuccarello – Hayes11:02
xG 0.28–0.48 (37%)attempts 2–14goals 1–0
- Desharnais – Miller – Vesey7:38
xG 0.48–1.13 (30%)attempts 9–8goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Skjei17:45
xG 1.65–0.71 (70%)attempts 27–11goals 1–0
- Staal – McDonagh3:36
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Kampfer7:23
xG 0.42–0.57 (43%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).