Thu, Nov 2, 2017·Capital One Arena, Washington
New York Islanders 3, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 114 | 18 | 116 | 338 |
| WSH | 211 | 16 | 12 | 419 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:55WSHTaylor ChorneyAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 13:01NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Anders Lee, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.47 xG1–1
- P1 16:19WSHLars EllerAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Madison Bowey · Slap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 16:18NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Josh Bailey, Mathew Barzal · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 16:30WSHAlex ChiassonAssists: John Carlson, Jay Beagle · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 7:00NYIAnders LeeAssists: Thomas Hickey, John Tavares · Snap, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 16:39WSHLars EllerGWGAssists: Tom Wilson, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:55WSHBrooks Orpik: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 16:52NYICasey Cizikas: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:06NYIJason Chimera: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:53WSHLars Eller: Holding2 min
- P2 8:12NYINick Leddy: Interference2 min
- P2 15:57WSHNathan Walker: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 2:50NYIAndrew Ladd: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:45WSHTaylor Chorney: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Eberle – Barzal11:34
xG 0.61–0.11 (85%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee10:46
xG 0.44–0.22 (66%)attempts 18–6goals 1–1
- Clutterbuck – Kulemin – Cizikas5:51
xG 0.14–0.06 (68%)attempts 7–3goals 0–2
- Chimera – Nelson – Beauvillier9:22
xG 0.36–0.51 (42%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy16:11
xG 0.60–0.20 (75%)attempts 22–6goals 0–1
- Hickey – Pulock12:04
xG 0.50–0.32 (62%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Seidenberg – de Haan14:12
xG 0.36–0.47 (43%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Wilson – Stephenson8:39
xG 0.24–0.05 (84%)attempts 9–4goals 3–0
- Beagle – Chiasson – Walker4:48
xG 0.19–0.14 (58%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Vrana9:09
xG 0.18–0.21 (46%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Smith-Pelly11:28
xG 0.21–0.47 (31%)attempts 6–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Orlov2:56
xG 0.13–0.02 (85%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Chorney – Orlov2:15
xG 0.16–0.05 (75%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Orpik – Bowey2:43
xG 0.14–0.15 (48%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).