Thu, Nov 2, 2017·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Detroit Red Wings 1, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 011 | 08 | 16 | 125 |
| OTT | 112 | 114 | 14 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:05OTTMark StoneAssists: Mike Hoffman, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 11:25OTTAlexandre BurrowsPPGWGAssists: Mark Stone, Dion Phaneuf · Snap, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 16:37DETAnthony ManthaPPAssists: Mike Green, Dylan Larkin · Tip-in, 0.30 xG1–2
- P3 19:50OTTNate ThompsonENAssists: Erik Karlsson, Tom Pyatt · Wrist, 0.71 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P2 9:39DETTrevor Daley: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 17:19DETTomas Tatar: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:18DETNiklas Kronwall: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:18OTTRyan Dzingel: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 12:23OTTErik Karlsson: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:05OTTZack Smith: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Wilson – Glendening – Frk6:12
xG 0.08–0.17 (31%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Abdelkader – Helm8:19
xG 0.17–0.28 (38%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Athanasiou – Mantha – Larkin7:14
xG 0.28–0.43 (40%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Tatar7:26
xG 0.08–0.26 (23%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Jensen7:57
xG 0.18–0.05 (76%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Jensen – Ouellet2:34
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Green4:48
xG 0.06–0.03 (71%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Hoffman – Stone8:39
xG 1.12–0.08 (93%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Turris – Smith – Dzingel9:50
xG 0.47–0.31 (60%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Burrows – Thompson – Rodewald6:49
xG 0.18–0.06 (74%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Thompson – Pyatt – Pageau2:13
xG 0.14–0.02 (88%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Karlsson5:57
xG 0.58–0.08 (88%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Claesson – Ceci6:43
xG 0.39–0.07 (84%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Claesson3:48
xG 0.29–0.05 (85%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).