Thu, Nov 2, 2017·Amalie Arena, Tampa
New York Rangers 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 1 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 113 | 012 | 09 | 11 | 235 |
| TBL | 08 | 116 | 04 | 00 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:34NYRChris KreiderAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 11:00TBLYanni GourdeSHAssists: Victor Hedman, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- OT 1:19NYRJ.T. MillerGWGAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Henrik Lundqvist · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 12:49NYRKevin Shattenkirk: Holding2 min
- P1 17:32NYRMats Zuccarello: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:32TBLVictor Hedman: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:38NYRSteven Kampfer: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:38TBLRyan Callahan: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:01TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:01TBLJT Brown: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:01NYRSteven Kampfer: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:01TBLAlex Killorn: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:04NYRRyan McDonagh: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZibanejad – Miller – Vesey3:04
xG 0.25–0.03 (89%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich9:50
xG 0.21–0.25 (46%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Nash – Zuccarello – Hayes11:09
xG 0.38–0.45 (46%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Miller – Vesey5:38
xG 0.19–0.32 (38%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Kampfer12:26
xG 0.29–0.03 (90%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Holden13:43
xG 0.75–0.53 (58%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Holden – Skjei2:12
xG 0.11–0.15 (42%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Gourde – Point14:07
xG 0.56–0.36 (61%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Callahan – Johnson7:14
xG 0.26–0.13 (66%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Killorn – Dumont – Brown4:24
xG 0.12–0.09 (56%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Callahan – Killorn – Johnson2:12
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Girardi14:11
xG 0.79–0.34 (70%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Stralman – Sergachev12:40
xG 0.79–0.40 (67%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Hedman – Dotchin15:02
xG 0.19–0.40 (33%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).