Thu, Nov 2, 2017·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Montréal Canadiens 3, Minnesota Wild 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 07 | 18 | 216 | 331 |
| MIN | 314 | 18 | 25 | 627 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:46MINMatt CullenAssists: Mike Reilly, Daniel Winnik · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 4:56MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Mathew Dumba · Deflected, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 15:51MINTyler EnnisAssists: Matt Cullen, Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 12:09MINRyan SuterGWGAssists: Mikko Koivu, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–4
- P2 13:09MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Charles Hudon · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–4
- P3 0:34MINJared SpurgeonPPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–5
- P3 9:14MTLAndrew ShawAssists: Phillip Danault, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–5
- P3 14:47MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–5
- P3 18:05MINMarcus FolignoENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.62 xG3–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:25MTLPhillip Danault: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:25MTLMax Pacioretty: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:41MTLBrendan Gallagher: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:46MTLJeff Petry: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:42MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Shaw – Danault12:19
xG 0.78–0.45 (63%)attempts 13–11goals 1–3
- Byron – Lehkonen – Drouin5:07
xG 0.18–0.05 (77%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Galchenyuk – Lehkonen – Drouin4:51
xG 0.14–0.04 (76%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Byron – Gallagher3:27
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Alzner5:17
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 1–0
- Weber – Mete13:47
xG 0.58–0.40 (59%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Alzner – Benn10:22
xG 0.37–0.24 (61%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Niederreiter – Kunin10:59
xG 0.46–0.22 (68%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund12:43
xG 0.48–0.37 (56%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Cullen – Winnik – Ennis9:30
xG 0.30–0.29 (51%)attempts 4–6goals 2–2
- Stewart – Foligno – Eriksson Ek10:34
xG 0.16–0.55 (22%)attempts 3–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon18:05
xG 0.64–0.50 (56%)attempts 18–15goals 1–1
- Brodin – Dumba19:24
xG 0.45–0.42 (51%)attempts 14–16goals 2–1
- Reilly – Olofsson9:59
xG 0.37–0.79 (32%)attempts 4–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).