Thu, Nov 2, 2017·Pepsi Center, Denver
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Colorado Avalanche 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 222 | 116 | 022 | 360 |
| COL | 29 | 311 | 07 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:55CARVictor RaskAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 7:31COLCarl SoderbergAssists: Erik Johnson, Mark Barberio · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 12:21COLPatrik NemethAssists: A.J. Greer, Nail Yakupov · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P1 15:14CARElias LindholmAssists: Sebastian Aho, Haydn Fleury · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 11:25COLBlake ComeauAssists: Carl Soderberg, Matt Nieto · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
- P2 14:03COLGabriel LandeskogGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Patrik Nemeth · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–4
- P2 14:58COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Tyson Barrie · Tip-in, 0.02 xG2–5
- P2 17:34CARDerek RyanAssists: Josh Jooris · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–5
Penalties (4)
- P2 5:54COLPatrik Nemeth: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:49CARMarcus Kruger: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 14:03CARJeff Skinner: Delaying game bench2 min · PPG
- P3 11:51COLCarl Soderberg: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Skinner – Lindholm6:33
xG 0.75–0.08 (90%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Jooris – Aho – Ryan5:11
xG 0.44–0.04 (92%)attempts 11–4goals 1–1
- Skinner – Jooris – Ryan6:38
xG 0.34–0.02 (94%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Lindholm – Aho8:34
xG 0.38–0.15 (71%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Fleury11:53
xG 0.81–0.24 (77%)attempts 26–7goals 2–0
- Dahlbeck – Hanifin9:22
xG 0.89–0.46 (66%)attempts 18–12goals 0–2
- Faulk – Slavin3:35
xG 0.33–0.06 (85%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Comeau – Soderberg – Nieto11:05
xG 0.50–0.64 (44%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Yakupov – Kerfoot – Greer6:37
xG 0.18–0.34 (34%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen16:15
xG 0.48–0.83 (36%)attempts 9–24goals 1–0
- Duchene – Grimaldi – Andrighetto9:37
xG 0.10–0.92 (9%)attempts 5–26goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Nemeth3:48
xG 0.10–0.04 (74%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Barrie2:17
xG 0.08–0.07 (55%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Barberio – Mironov4:27
xG 0.07–0.16 (31%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).