Thu, Nov 2, 2017·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Los Angeles Kings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 09 | 214 | 113 | 336 |
| LAK | 315 | 27 | 06 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:34LAKMichael AmadioAssists: Tanner Pearson · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 4:58LAKMichael CammalleriPPAssists: Dustin Brown, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.42 xG0–2
- P1 19:24LAKTrevor LewisAssists: Nicholas Shore, Michael Cammalleri · Snap, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 14:31LAKTyler ToffoliPPGWGAssists: Tanner Pearson, Jake Muzzin · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–4
- P2 16:32LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Adrian Kempe, Tanner Pearson · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–5
- P2 17:50TORAuston MatthewsUnassisted · Backhand, 0.35 xG1–5
- P2 19:57TORMorgan RiellyAssists: Auston Matthews, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–5
- P3 8:00TORConnor BrownPPAssists: Jake Gardiner, William Nylander · Deflected, 0.08 xG3–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:56TORJames van Riemsdyk: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 5:39LAKBrooks Laich: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:41LAKBrooks Laich: Interference2 min
- P2 6:24LAKJake Muzzin: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:20TORAndreas Borgman: Interference2 min
- P2 12:54TORRoman Polak: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:35TORAndreas Borgman: Embellishment2 min
- P2 17:35LAKNicholas Shore: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:50LAKAnze Kopitar: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 6:29LAKTanner Pearson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 13:53TORZach Hyman: Holding2 min
- P3 18:41LAKJake Muzzin: Penalty shot net displaced0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Kadri – Kapanen9:05
xG 1.43–0.13 (92%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Martin – Bozak – Marner8:27
xG 0.41–0.44 (48%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Marleau – van Riemsdyk – Brown6:59
xG 0.16–0.37 (30%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews10:47
xG 0.31–0.56 (36%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Gardiner5:16
xG 1.02–0.31 (77%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Zaitsev – Borgman6:05
xG 0.39–0.13 (74%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Polak – Borgman6:32
xG 0.39–0.15 (72%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Kopitar – Iafallo9:14
xG 0.57–0.14 (80%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Lewis – Shore6:10
xG 0.15–0.10 (59%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Pearson – Kempe7:42
xG 0.52–1.16 (31%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Fantenberg4:54
xG 0.42–0.35 (54%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Martinez8:35
xG 0.14–0.19 (43%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Doughty – Forbort15:11
xG 0.95–1.30 (42%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).