Fri, Nov 3, 2017·Rogers Place, Edmonton
New Jersey Devils 3, Edmonton Oilers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 116 | 19 | 19 | 334 |
| EDM | 210 | 220 | 212 | 642 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:40EDMDrake CaggiulaPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Mark Letestu · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
- P1 8:55EDMRyan StromeAssists: Drake Caggiula, Adam Larsson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 15:00NJDTaylor HallAssists: Miles Wood · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–2
- P2 5:02NJDJesper BrattAssists: Nico Hischier, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 6:03EDMOscar KlefbomAssists: Patrick Maroon, Connor McDavid · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 18:56EDMMilan LucicGWGAssists: Anton Slepyshev, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Tip-in, 0.23 xG2–4
- P3 13:18EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Connor McDavid, Matt Benning · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–5
- P3 14:25NJDBrian GibbonsAssists: Will Butcher, Drew Stafford · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–5
- P3 18:08EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.74 xG3–6
Penalties (3)
- P1 4:49NJDDalton Prout: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:19EDMMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:19NJDDalton Prout: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Stafford – Hall – Hischier3:05
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Henrique – Gibbons – Bratt3:24
xG 0.18–0.16 (54%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Stafford – Hall – Zacha7:26
xG 0.39–0.40 (49%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Hall – Bratt – Hischier3:49
xG 0.23–0.25 (48%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestProut – Mueller4:31
xG 0.48–0.18 (73%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Butcher – Mueller8:30
xG 0.33–0.11 (76%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Greene – Severson3:47
xG 0.33–0.22 (60%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Nugent-Hopkins – Slepyshev13:10
xG 1.22–0.62 (66%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
- Maroon – Draisaitl – McDavid17:54
xG 1.38–0.80 (63%)attempts 23–16goals 2–1
- Jokinen – Strome – Caggiula11:21
xG 0.44–0.29 (61%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Letestu – Kassian – Pakarinen5:22
xG 0.53–0.54 (50%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Nurse21:48
xG 1.49–0.69 (68%)attempts 32–19goals 1–0
- Russell – Gryba16:24
xG 0.97–0.54 (64%)attempts 14–21goals 1–1
- Klefbom – Benning18:35
xG 1.37–1.23 (53%)attempts 20–23goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).