Fri, Nov 3, 2017·Honda Center, Anaheim
Nashville Predators 5, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 28 | 29 | 113 | 530 |
| ANA | 012 | 213 | 113 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:26NSHScott HartnellAssists: Roman Josi, Pontus Aberg · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 19:11NSHRoman JosiAssists: Colton Sissons, Frederick Gaudreau · Snap, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 3:05NSHMatt IrwinAssists: Yannick Weber, Frederick Gaudreau · Slap, 0.02 xG3–0
- P2 4:24ANAAntoine VermetteAssists: Ondrej Kase, Nick Ritchie · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
- P2 17:20NSHViktor ArvidssonPPGWGAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Kevin Fiala · Slap, 0.05 xG4–1
- P2 19:45ANAHampus LindholmPPAssists: Rickard Rakell · Slap, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 7:41ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Derek Grant, Chris Wagner · Slap, 0.25 xG4–3
- P3 19:42NSHP.K. SubbanENAssists: Pekka Rinne, Austin Watson · Snap, 0.43 xG5–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:17ANANick Ritchie: Cross checking2 min
- P1 3:55ANAJosh Manson: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:54NSHMattias Ekholm: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:51NSHFilip Forsberg: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:34NSHRoman Josi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:48ANANick Ritchie: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:25ANANick Ritchie: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:42NSHMattias Ekholm: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Johansen – Aberg4:22
xG 0.32–0.15 (69%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Johansen – Arvidsson7:10
xG 0.08–0.05 (64%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- McLeod – Watson – Gaudreau7:54
xG 0.16–0.31 (34%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Smith – Forsberg – Sissons8:34
xG 0.27–0.52 (34%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Josi – Ekholm17:44
xG 0.83–0.87 (49%)attempts 19–26goals 1–0
- Weber – Irwin12:08
xG 0.22–0.43 (34%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Emelin – Subban14:23
xG 0.35–0.90 (28%)attempts 12–19goals 0–2
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGrant – Silfverberg – Wagner8:15
xG 0.90–0.26 (77%)attempts 19–5goals 1–0
- Perry – Cogliano – Rakell8:58
xG 0.49–0.35 (58%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Grant – Silfverberg3:04
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Vermette – Ritchie – Kase8:22
xG 0.57–0.48 (54%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm13:36
xG 0.78–0.20 (80%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Vatanen8:40
xG 0.47–0.21 (69%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Montour13:29
xG 0.66–0.59 (53%)attempts 17–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).