Sat, Nov 4, 2017·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Vegas Golden Knights 5, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 17 | 217 | 210 | 534 |
| OTT | 05 | 27 | 216 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:25VGKAlex TuchPPAssists: William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–0
- P2 0:21OTTMark StoneAssists: Mike Hoffman, Dion Phaneuf · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 4:17VGKErik HaulaAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, David Perron · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 7:12OTTAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Tom Pyatt, Chris Wideman · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 12:39VGKJonathan MarchessaultPPAssists: Nate Schmidt, Erik Haula · Snap, 0.21 xG3–2
- P3 3:29VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith · Wrap-around, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 6:47VGKErik HaulaPPGWGAssists: David Perron, James Neal · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–2
- P3 7:52OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Derick Brassard, Mark Stone · Slap, 0.11 xG5–3
- P3 19:26OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Derick Brassard, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:59OTTErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 9:22OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:22VGKLuca Sbisa: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:22OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 2:14OTTZack Smith: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 11:13OTTChristopher DiDomenico: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:56VGKWilliam Carrier: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:30OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:27VGKAlex Tuch: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Haula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault8:53
xG 0.42–0.08 (83%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Eakin – Lindberg – Tuch11:22
xG 0.44–0.23 (66%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Neal – Perron – Haula12:28
xG 0.19–0.34 (35%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Carrier – Bellemare – Nosek5:57
xG 0.24–0.46 (35%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Theodore10:01
xG 0.46–0.16 (74%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Engelland – McNabb14:12
xG 0.34–0.33 (51%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Sbisa – Schmidt15:26
xG 0.51–0.76 (40%)attempts 10–23goals 1–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Dzingel – Pageau2:30
xG 0.14–0.05 (74%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Burrows – Thompson – Pyatt3:24
xG 0.08–0.03 (74%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Brassard – Hoffman – Stone9:03
xG 0.50–0.45 (52%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Burrows – Turris – Hoffman2:26
xG 0.07–0.04 (63%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Wideman7:37
xG 0.44–0.20 (69%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Karlsson9:05
xG 0.48–0.27 (64%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Claesson8:29
xG 0.23–0.45 (33%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).