Sat, Nov 4, 2017·TD Garden, Boston
Washington Capitals 3, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 28 | 113 | 06 | 327 |
| BOS | 07 | 112 | 114 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:01WSHTom WilsonAssists: Lars Eller, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 13:06WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Dmitry Orlov · Slap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 3:37BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 18:50WSHTom WilsonGWGAssists: Brooks Orpik · Deflected, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 17:28BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Brad Marchand, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:43BOSAnders Bjork: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:39BOSTim Schaller: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:46WSHBrooks Orpik: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 9:21WSHDmitry Orlov: Holding2 min
- P3 16:21WSHTom Wilson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Oshie – Backstrom – Vrana7:43
xG 0.10–0.17 (37%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Smith-Pelly11:56
xG 0.43–0.52 (45%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
- Eller – Wilson – Stephenson9:12
xG 0.35–0.46 (43%)attempts 6–9goals 2–0
- Beagle – Chiasson – O'Brien8:37
xG 0.21–0.48 (30%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChorney – Djoos10:35
xG 0.31–0.18 (63%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Orpik – Bowey2:39
xG 0.06–0.10 (39%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Orlov – Bowey10:28
xG 0.32–0.48 (40%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak13:22
xG 0.80–0.29 (73%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Beleskey – Nash – Czarnik10:02
xG 0.48–0.06 (89%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Schaller – DeBrusk11:44
xG 0.30–0.31 (49%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Szwarz – Heinen – Bjork6:15
xG 0.13–0.22 (37%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – McAvoy18:42
xG 0.73–0.26 (74%)attempts 21–6goals 1–1
- Postma – Miller5:57
xG 0.35–0.16 (70%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Krug – Carlo13:01
xG 0.38–0.27 (59%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).