Sat, Nov 4, 2017·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Colorado Avalanche 5, Philadelphia Flyers 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 19 | 29 | 14 | 05 | 2 | 527 |
| PHI | 05 | 216 | 210 | 06 | 1 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:58COLMatt DuchenePPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–0
- P2 1:21PHIValtteri FilppulaAssists: Travis Konecny, Wayne Simmonds · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 6:31PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.28 xG1–2
- P2 15:30COLBlake ComeauSHAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Patrik Nemeth · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 16:13COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–2
- P3 4:33PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Sean Couturier, Robert Hagg · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–3
- P3 5:37COLNail YakupovAssists: Matt Duchene · Snap, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 6:37PHIDale WeiseAssists: Jordan Weal, Travis Sanheim · Snap, 0.12 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. PHI Jordan Weal scored
- 2. COL Nathan MacKinnon scored
- 3. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 4. COL Matt Duchene stopped
- 5. PHI Jakub Voracek stopped
- 6. COL Mikko Rantanen scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:36PHIDale Weise: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:31COLNail Yakupov: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:17COLMikko Rantanen: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:04PHIScott Laughton: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 5:54COLNail Yakupov: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:39COLA.J. Greer: Interference2 min
- P2 15:59PHITravis Sanheim: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:27COLErik Johnson: Delaying game2 min
- P3 14:11COLAndrei Mironov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Yakupov – Andrighetto11:07
xG 0.22–0.12 (65%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Bourque9:08
xG 0.20–0.33 (38%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Duchene – Kerfoot – Greer2:44
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen11:25
xG 0.22–0.52 (30%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Zadorov5:28
xG 0.14–0.06 (68%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Mironov2:09
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Barrie3:11
xG 0.02–0.04 (37%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Couturier12:59
xG 0.62–0.08 (89%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Laughton – Leier – Raffl7:35
xG 0.36–0.08 (83%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Weise – Weal7:46
xG 0.40–0.14 (74%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Filppula – Simmonds – Konecny12:05
xG 0.39–0.35 (53%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestAlt – Sanheim6:42
xG 0.47–0.07 (86%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Manning – Gostisbehere14:01
xG 0.49–0.25 (66%)attempts 14–6goals 1–1
- Hagg – Provorov16:35
xG 0.39–0.37 (51%)attempts 15–21goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).