Sat, Nov 4, 2017·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, St. Louis Blues 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 16 | 013 | 312 | 431 |
| STL | 010 | 314 | 38 | 632 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:16TORAndreas BorgmanAssists: Matt Martin, Connor Carrick · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 2:33STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Brayden Schenn · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 7:10STLJoel EdmundsonAssists: Brayden Schenn, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–2
- P2 10:28STLAlex PietrangeloAssists: Brayden Schenn, Jaden Schwartz · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 1:22STLMagnus PaajarviUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–4
- P3 2:07TORTyler BozakAssists: Mitch Marner, Matt Martin · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 2:24STLVladimir SobotkaGWGAssists: Alexander Steen, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–5
- P3 7:52STLAlex PietrangeloPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.41 xG2–6
- P3 10:10TORConnor BrownAssists: Zach Hyman, Andreas Borgman · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–6
- P3 13:13TORTyler BozakAssists: Matt Martin, Mitch Marner · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:36TORTyler Bozak: Interference2 min
- P1 9:42STLCarl Gunnarsson: Holding2 min
- P1 15:03TORLeo Komarov: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:30STLPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:40TORNazem Kadri: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 6:55STLAlexander Steen: Holding2 min
- P3 7:14TORMitch Marner: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sundqvist won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Brown – Matthews6:01
xG 0.54–0.08 (87%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Martin – Bozak – Marner7:53
xG 0.44–0.11 (80%)attempts 9–4goals 3–0
- Marleau – van Riemsdyk – Nylander2:24
xG 0.01–0.06 (18%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews5:00
xG 0.32–0.53 (38%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarrick – Borgman5:28
xG 0.34–0.10 (77%)attempts 9–4goals 2–0
- Zaitsev – Borgman7:26
xG 0.40–0.29 (58%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Zaitsev3:06
xG 0.04–0.05 (48%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz13:09
xG 1.18–0.58 (67%)attempts 23–11goals 3–1
- Paajarvi – Jaskin – Sundqvist9:58
xG 0.72–0.13 (85%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Steen – Stastny – Sobotka12:16
xG 0.49–0.46 (51%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Thorburn – Upshall – Brodziak6:22
xG 0.06–0.35 (16%)attempts 6–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Dunn11:34
xG 0.97–0.61 (61%)attempts 16–15goals 2–3
- Gunnarsson – Pietrangelo14:47
xG 0.78–0.47 (63%)attempts 17–13goals 2–0
- Edmundson – Parayko13:22
xG 0.61–0.41 (60%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).