Sat, Nov 4, 2017·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 116 | 010 | 113 | 239 |
| VAN | 18 | 19 | 24 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:53PITJake GuentzelPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 7:07VANBrock BoeserAssists: Bo Horvat · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 7:14VANBrock BoeserAssists: Sven Baertschi, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 4:49PITGreg McKeggAssists: Ryan Reaves · Deflected, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 5:56VANBrock BoeserGWGAssists: Bo Horvat, Sven Baertschi · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 16:29VANBo HorvatAssists: Sven Baertschi, Brock Boeser · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:47VANAlex Biega: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 3:10VANAlexander Burmistrov: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:50VANBrock Boeser: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:29VANSven Baertschi: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:37PITIan Cole: Interference2 min
- P3 9:29PITJake Guentzel: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Hornqvist – Sheary4:42
xG 0.56–0.15 (79%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Hornqvist – Sheahan – Sheary4:03
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Crosby – Kessel – Guentzel5:46
xG 0.37–0.25 (60%)attempts 9–6goals 0–2
- Malkin – Hagelin – Rust4:50
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Corrado8:30
xG 0.57–0.06 (90%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Letang – Maatta9:33
xG 0.70–0.30 (70%)attempts 9–8goals 0–2
- Dumoulin – Ruhwedel6:42
xG 0.24–0.10 (71%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBaertschi – Horvat – Boeser12:16
xG 0.69–0.38 (65%)attempts 16–9goals 4–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Virtanen5:38
xG 0.21–0.28 (43%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Vanek – Gagner – Burmistrov9:49
xG 0.16–0.34 (32%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Dorsett – Sutter – Granlund11:47
xG 0.04–0.52 (8%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Tanev – Hutton11:54
xG 0.39–0.49 (44%)attempts 9–11goals 3–0
- Del Zotto – Gudbranson15:20
xG 0.29–0.48 (38%)attempts 10–18goals 1–0
- Biega – Pouliot9:47
xG 0.33–0.91 (27%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).