Sun, Nov 5, 2017·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Detroit Red Wings 4, Edmonton Oilers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 29 | 110 | 116 | 435 |
| EDM | 09 | 012 | 015 | 036 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:23DETFrans NielsenGWGAssists: Nick Jensen, Darren Helm · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 9:10DETGustav NyquistAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Justin Abdelkader · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–0
- P2 11:13DETMartin FrkAssists: Anthony Mantha · Snap, 0.05 xG3–0
- P3 6:30DETAnthony ManthaPPAssists: Martin Frk, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.60 xG4–0
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:07DETNick Jensen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 7:02EDMPatrick Maroon: Interference2 min
- P3 5:39EDMZack Kassian: Broken stick2 min · PPG
- P3 9:41DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Tatar – Mantha3:31
xG 0.14–0.02 (90%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Tatar – Frk – Athanasiou5:02
xG 0.08–0.15 (33%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Wilson – Mantha2:06
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Wilson6:35
xG 0.09–0.22 (28%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Green5:26
xG 0.24–0.01 (96%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Daley – Ericsson15:11
xG 0.97–0.87 (53%)attempts 22–13goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Jensen12:46
xG 0.43–0.39 (52%)attempts 8–20goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Strome – Caggiula10:18
xG 0.55–0.07 (89%)attempts 15–4goals 0–1
- Letestu – Kassian – Pakarinen11:46
xG 0.69–0.41 (63%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Lucic – Nugent-Hopkins – Yamamoto12:21
xG 0.57–0.41 (58%)attempts 21–13goals 0–0
- Maroon – Draisaitl – McDavid12:43
xG 0.40–1.21 (25%)attempts 8–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlefbom – Benning16:11
xG 0.93–0.42 (69%)attempts 22–11goals 0–0
- Larsson – Nurse17:21
xG 1.02–1.03 (50%)attempts 25–21goals 0–1
- Russell – Gryba12:13
xG 0.36–0.62 (37%)attempts 14–9goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).