Sun, Nov 5, 2017·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Colorado Avalanche 4, New York Islanders 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 012 | 211 | 212 | 435 |
| NYI | 28 | 39 | 111 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:05NYIScott MayfieldAssists: Calvin de Haan, Josh Bailey · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 12:58NYIJordan EberleAssists: Mathew Barzal, Johnny Boychuk · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 0:40COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Erik Johnson, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–2
- P2 1:33NYINick LeddyPPAssists: Mathew Barzal, John Tavares · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 4:24NYINick LeddyPPAssists: Josh Bailey, Mathew Barzal · Slap, 0.06 xG1–4
- P2 9:46NYIJohnny BoychukGWGAssists: Nick Leddy, Mathew Barzal · Snap, 0.03 xG1–5
- P2 13:02COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Tyson Barrie · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–5
- P3 1:23NYIJordan EberleAssists: Mathew Barzal, Scott Mayfield · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–6
- P3 19:30COLAlexander KerfootAssists: Sven Andrighetto, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–6
- P3 19:51COLAlexander KerfootAssists: Sven Andrighetto, Rocco Grimaldi · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:06NYIScott Mayfield: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:23COLCarl Soderberg: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:56COLAlexander Kerfoot: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 4:43NYIAndrew Ladd: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:39NYIJosh Bailey: Interference2 min
- P3 5:05NYIScott Mayfield: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:05COLNikita Zadorov: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:28NYIRyan Pulock: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen15:21
xG 1.08–0.33 (76%)attempts 25–10goals 2–1
- Grimaldi – Kerfoot – Andrighetto3:02
xG 0.41–0.25 (62%)attempts 6–3goals 2–0
- Soderberg – Bourque – Grimaldi3:16
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Bourque2:04
xG 0.03–0.02 (62%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Barrie5:31
xG 0.59–0.10 (85%)attempts 14–1goals 1–0
- Johnson – Barberio9:46
xG 0.54–0.23 (70%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Barrie – Zadorov2:57
xG 0.26–0.18 (58%)attempts 2–3goals 2–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Kulemin – Cizikas7:34
xG 0.36–0.08 (82%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Ladd – Eberle – Barzal10:26
xG 0.57–0.34 (63%)attempts 14–8goals 3–1
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee12:11
xG 0.30–0.46 (39%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
- Chimera – Nelson – Beauvillier9:24
xG 0.29–0.52 (36%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Pulock13:48
xG 0.46–0.37 (55%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Boychuk – Leddy17:48
xG 0.67–0.66 (50%)attempts 22–18goals 2–1
- de Haan – Mayfield12:39
xG 0.48–0.76 (39%)attempts 9–14goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).