Sun, Nov 5, 2017·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
New Jersey Devils 4, Calgary Flames 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 116 | 27 | 15 | 02 | 1 | 430 |
| CGY | 19 | 214 | 19 | 02 | 2 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:34NJDTaylor HallAssists: Nico Hischier · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 11:07CGYMichael FrolikSHAssists: Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 1:56NJDBen LovejoyAssists: Nico Hischier, Jimmy Hayes · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 11:11CGYMichael StoneAssists: Kris Versteeg, Michael Frolik · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 12:27CGYSean MonahanAssists: Micheal Ferland, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 12:37NJDBrian GibbonsUnassisted · Snap, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 6:54CGYMicheal FerlandAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 11:11NJDAndy GreeneAssists: Jesper Bratt, Ben Lovejoy · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. NJD Taylor Hall stopped
- 2. CGY Sean Monahan scored
- 3. NJD Jesper Bratt stopped
- 4. CGY Kris Versteeg stopped
- 5. NJD Drew Stafford scored
- 6. CGY Matthew Tkachuk scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:08NJDMiles Wood: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:51CGYBrett Kulak: Holding2 min
- P1 13:15NJDStefan Noesen: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P1 15:53NJDDamon Severson: Interference2 min
- P1 16:45CGYSam Bennett: Interference2 min
- P2 5:14NJDJesper Bratt: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:54CGYMatt Bartkowski: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHall – Bratt – Hischier13:51
xG 0.59–0.49 (55%)attempts 19–12goals 2–2
- Hayes – Wood – Zacha4:13
xG 0.13–0.06 (68%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Boyle – Hayes – Zacha5:54
xG 0.14–0.12 (52%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Boyle – Coleman – Noesen3:22
xG 0.01–0.07 (17%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Mueller10:37
xG 0.48–0.36 (57%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Moore – Severson11:20
xG 0.47–0.35 (57%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- Lovejoy – Moore3:01
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk13:07
xG 0.43–0.08 (84%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Lazar – Bennett7:36
xG 0.30–0.13 (70%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Stajan – Versteeg – Brouwer9:54
xG 0.31–0.28 (52%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan12:46
xG 0.33–0.53 (38%)attempts 12–14goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Brodie20:12
xG 0.65–0.30 (69%)attempts 22–15goals 2–0
- Giordano – Hamilton17:08
xG 0.80–0.63 (56%)attempts 21–18goals 1–2
- Bartkowski – Kulak11:14
xG 0.32–0.28 (53%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).