Mon, Nov 6, 2017·TD Garden, Boston
Minnesota Wild 3, Boston Bruins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 111 | 04 | 212 | 327 |
| BOS | 29 | 215 | 110 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:53MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Ryan Suter, Jared Spurgeon · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 10:23BOSJake DeBruskAssists: Zdeno Chara, Jordan Szwarz · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 12:42BOSFrank VatranoAssists: Jordan Szwarz, Zdeno Chara · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 5:34BOSSean KuralyAssists: Danton Heinen, Tim Schaller · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–3
- P2 7:43BOSTorey KrugGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron · Slap, 0.02 xG1–4
- P3 1:33MINMikael GranlundAssists: Mathew Dumba · Slap, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 15:56MINEric StaalSHAssists: Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 19:03BOSTim SchallerENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.69 xG3–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:50MINLuke Kunin: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:50BOSMatt Beleskey: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:50MINMathew Dumba: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 19:59MINEric Staal: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:16BOSKevan Miller: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:32MINMatt Cullen: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:55BOSTorey Krug: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P3 15:09MINNino Niederreiter: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Foligno – Granlund4:45
xG 0.20–0.05 (79%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Cullen – Stewart – Eriksson Ek4:22
xG 0.23–0.19 (54%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Staal – Ennis – Niederreiter10:48
xG 0.72–0.68 (51%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund5:55
xG 0.15–0.14 (52%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Suter – Spurgeon17:53
xG 0.55–0.55 (50%)attempts 15–15goals 1–1
- Quincey – Reilly10:08
xG 0.52–0.59 (47%)attempts 8–7goals 0–2
- Brodin – Dumba17:02
xG 0.26–0.64 (29%)attempts 7–18goals 1–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKuraly – Schaller – Heinen8:46
xG 0.72–0.22 (77%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Szwarz – Vatrano – DeBrusk9:52
xG 0.27–0.18 (60%)attempts 8–2goals 2–0
- Bergeron – Pastrnak – Bjork12:03
xG 0.46–0.44 (51%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Beleskey – Nash – Czarnik7:27
xG 0.30–0.39 (44%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – McAvoy17:17
xG 1.08–0.37 (74%)attempts 19–8goals 2–0
- Miller – O'Gara11:27
xG 0.32–0.28 (54%)attempts 12–3goals 0–1
- Chara – Carlo2:32
xG 0.23–0.24 (50%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).