Mon, Nov 6, 2017·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 110 | 16 | 17 | 05 | 0 | 328 |
| TOR | 39 | 06 | 08 | 02 | 1 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:14TORNazem KadriPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 4:52VGKJames NealAssists: Erik Haula, David Perron · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 9:31TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Auston Matthews, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P1 15:03TORNazem KadriAssists: Patrick Marleau · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 18:50VGKReilly SmithPPAssists: Colin Miller, William Karlsson · Snap, 0.26 xG2–3
- P3 6:16VGKDeryk EngellandAssists: Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. TOR Mitch Marner scored
- 2. VGK Reilly Smith stopped
- 3. TOR Auston Matthews stopped
- 4. VGK James Neal stopped
- 5. TOR Patrick Marleau stopped
- 6. VGK David Perron stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:32VGKLuca Sbisa: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 6:29VGKBrendan Leipsic: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:39VGKDavid Perron: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:00TORMitch Marner: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:48TORZach Hyman: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 17:38TORAuston Matthews: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 1:24VGKBrayden McNabb: Illegal check to head2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nylander won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault10:33
xG 0.55–0.32 (63%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Leipsic – Bellemare – Nosek7:44
xG 0.37–0.14 (72%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Eakin – Lindberg – Tuch11:24
xG 0.12–0.06 (65%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Neal – Perron – Haula12:26
xG 0.25–0.51 (33%)attempts 5–11goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Miller8:36
xG 0.25–0.01 (98%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Engelland – McNabb7:36
xG 0.21–0.12 (63%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Sbisa – Schmidt15:28
xG 0.66–0.63 (51%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Martin – Bozak – Marner9:45
xG 0.07–0.13 (35%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Moore – van Riemsdyk – Brown7:02
xG 0.01–0.13 (6%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Marleau – Komarov – Kadri8:42
xG 0.18–0.36 (33%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews13:12
xG 0.44–0.63 (41%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Zaitsev – Borgman2:15
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Carrick – Borgman8:10
xG 0.03–0.27 (11%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Rielly14:55
xG 0.32–0.61 (34%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).