Mon, Nov 6, 2017·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Detroit Red Wings 3, Vancouver Canucks 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 111 | 19 | 110 | 330 |
| VAN | 08 | 011 | 29 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:02DETDarren HelmAssists: Frans Nielsen, Justin Abdelkader · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 15:15DETMartin FrkPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P3 7:16VANDaniel SedinAssists: Thomas Vanek, Henrik Sedin · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 9:30VANMichael Del ZottoAssists: Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 18:46DETTomas TatarGWGAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:20DETJustin Abdelkader: Interference2 min
- P1 19:57DETMike Green: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:59VANBrock Boeser: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:10VANAlexander Burmistrov: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:34DETLuke Glendening: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:34VANDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Helm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Nyquist – Mantha12:39
xG 0.48–0.02 (96%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Abdelkader – Helm2:19
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Glendening8:32
xG 0.25–0.14 (64%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Tatar – Larkin8:54
xG 0.30–0.29 (51%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Ericsson18:31
xG 1.16–0.14 (89%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Green5:12
xG 0.70–0.09 (88%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Jensen10:16
xG 0.32–0.21 (61%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Virtanen9:41
xG 0.69–0.43 (62%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Vanek – Gagner – Burmistrov7:42
xG 0.37–0.15 (71%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Baertschi – Horvat – Boeser13:48
xG 0.16–0.37 (30%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Dorsett – Sutter – Granlund11:47
xG 0.11–1.28 (8%)attempts 9–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBiega – Pouliot13:36
xG 0.45–0.23 (66%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Tanev – Hutton15:07
xG 0.55–0.74 (42%)attempts 18–14goals 0–1
- Del Zotto – Gudbranson16:41
xG 0.30–1.17 (20%)attempts 9–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).