Tue, Nov 7, 2017·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Florida Panthers 1, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 010 | 17 | 014 | 131 |
| CAR | 020 | 118 | 210 | 348 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:17CARBrock McGinnAssists: Noah Hanifin, Roland McKeown · Backhand, 0.24 xG0–1
- P2 14:06FLAVincent TrocheckPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Roberto Luongo · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
- P3 9:35CARDerek RyanGWGAssists: Justin Williams, Roland McKeown · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–2
- P3 18:46CARJustin WilliamsENAssists: Joakim Nordstrom, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.73 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:35FLAConnor Brickley: High sticking2 min
- P1 3:55FLAConnor Brickley: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:05FLANick Bjugstad: Holding2 min
- P2 13:11CARJeff Skinner: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:25FLAMicheal Haley: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:01FLAMicheal Haley: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:27FLAMark Pysyk: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:27CARJoakim Nordstrom: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:07CARSebastian Aho: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov13:56
xG 0.84–0.43 (66%)attempts 26–12goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – Haley6:06
xG 0.26–0.26 (50%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Brickley – Bjugstad – Trocheck8:19
xG 0.10–0.32 (23%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Vrbata – McGinn – Balisy6:16
xG 0.09–0.46 (16%)attempts 2–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Weegar9:55
xG 0.31–0.14 (69%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Petrovic – McCoshen11:27
xG 0.68–0.55 (55%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
- Yandle – Ekblad16:20
xG 0.65–1.10 (37%)attempts 24–24goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestKruger – Nordstrom – Jooris8:06
xG 0.46–0.03 (93%)attempts 15–2goals 0–0
- Williams – Rask – McGinn8:21
xG 0.55–0.19 (74%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Skinner – Lindholm – Ryan8:01
xG 0.20–0.13 (60%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Aho9:49
xG 0.23–0.48 (32%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcKeown – Hanifin8:59
xG 0.87–0.22 (80%)attempts 22–8goals 2–0
- Faulk – Slavin14:48
xG 0.83–0.56 (60%)attempts 16–20goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Hanifin2:58
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).