Tue, Nov 7, 2017·Centre Bell, Montreal
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 12 | 012 | 117 | 231 |
| MTL | 214 | 15 | 09 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:24MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Jordie Benn · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 10:55MTLJordie BennAssists: Victor Mete, Charles Hudon · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P1 17:41VGKPierre-Edouard BellemareAssists: Deryk Engelland · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 3:31MTLMax PaciorettyGWGAssists: Jeff Petry, Andrew Shaw · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 18:23VGKErik HaulaAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, David Perron · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:47VGKErik Haula: Holding2 min
- P1 15:22MTLShea Weber: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:17VGKTomas Nosek: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:52MTLShea Weber: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestEakin – Lindberg – Tuch11:10
xG 0.45–0.32 (58%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Neal – Perron – Haula11:14
xG 0.31–0.24 (57%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Carrier – Bellemare – Nosek7:52
xG 0.38–0.64 (37%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault12:57
xG 0.36–0.97 (27%)attempts 14–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – McNabb12:16
xG 0.83–0.55 (60%)attempts 18–10goals 1–1
- Sbisa – Schmidt16:18
xG 0.50–0.93 (35%)attempts 14–17goals 0–2
- Miller – Hunt16:59
xG 0.13–0.83 (14%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Gallagher – Hudon3:29
xG 0.66–0.07 (90%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Byron – Gallagher8:22
xG 0.73–0.17 (81%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Pacioretty – Shaw – Danault13:45
xG 0.57–0.10 (85%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Hudon – McCarron4:42
xG 0.08–0.14 (38%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Benn13:35
xG 0.95–0.24 (80%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
- Petry – Alzner12:31
xG 0.85–0.34 (72%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
- Weber – Mete3:55
xG 0.22–0.08 (74%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).