Tue, Nov 7, 2017·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vancouver Canucks 5, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 18 | 27 | 26 | 521 |
| CGY | 18 | 216 | 08 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:38VANSam GagnerPPAssists: Daniel Sedin, Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 19:49CGYDougie HamiltonPPAssists: Mikael Backlund, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 11:51CGYJohnny GaudreauPPAssists: TJ Brodie, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 15:09VANThomas VanekAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Alex Biega · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 17:27CGYMicheal FerlandUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 18:20VANDerek DorsettSHAssists: Brandon Sutter, Ben Hutton · Deflected, 0.16 xG3–3
- P3 4:12VANBo HorvatPPGWGAssists: Brock Boeser, Ben Hutton · Backhand, 0.17 xG4–3
- P3 4:50VANHenrik SedinAssists: Daniel Sedin, Jake Virtanen · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:44CGYDougie Hamilton: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:39CGYMichael Frolik: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:57VANBrandon Sutter: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 11:28VANDaniel Sedin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:04VANAlex Biega: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:16VANBen Hutton: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:49CGYMichael Stone: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Dorsett – Sutter – Gaunce10:44
xG 0.10–0.21 (31%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Vanek – Gagner – Burmistrov8:46
xG 0.30–0.47 (39%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Virtanen5:37
xG 0.13–0.51 (21%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Baertschi – Horvat – Boeser10:00
xG 0.11–0.53 (17%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gudbranson – Pouliot13:34
xG 0.26–0.47 (36%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Tanev – Hutton16:47
xG 0.51–0.79 (39%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
- Biega – Del Zotto13:59
xG 0.33–0.69 (32%)attempts 8–20goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFerland – Gaudreau – Monahan12:33
xG 0.88–0.59 (60%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk10:55
xG 0.30–0.04 (87%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Versteeg – Brouwer – Lazar7:12
xG 0.35–0.17 (67%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Jagr – Jankowski – Bennett8:08
xG 0.12–0.06 (67%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton17:22
xG 0.92–0.22 (81%)attempts 25–7goals 0–1
- Stone – Brodie16:14
xG 0.95–0.47 (67%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Bartkowski – Kulak10:57
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).