Tue, Nov 7, 2017·Honda Center, Anaheim
Los Angeles Kings 4, Anaheim Ducks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 110 | 111 | 117 | 15 | 443 |
| ANA | 217 | 112 | 06 | 01 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:01ANAJared BollAssists: Brandon Montour, Logan Shaw · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 12:26ANASami VatanenAssists: Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 16:58LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Alex Iafallo, Jake Muzzin · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 14:52ANARickard RakellAssists: Josh Manson, Derek Grant · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P2 19:01LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Tanner Pearson, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 5:49LAKDustin BrownPPAssists: Alex Iafallo, Anze Kopitar · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–3
- OT 3:51LAKNicholas ShoreGWGAssists: Dustin Brown, Jonathan Quick · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–3
Penalties (16)
- P1 7:25LAKKurtis MacDermid: Interference5 min
- P1 7:25LAKKurtis MacDermid: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 14:08ANAKevin Bieksa: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:13ANARickard Rakell: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:33LAKDerek Forbort: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:33ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:33LAKJonathan Quick: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:50ANACorey Perry: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:03LAKAndy Andreoff: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:08ANAJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:08LAKAndy Andreoff: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:39ANANick Ritchie: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 5:54LAKAdrian Kempe: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 8:45ANAJakob Silfverberg: Interference2 min
- P3 15:29ANAKevin Bieksa: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:43ANAJosh Manson: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wagner won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestLewis – Andreoff – Shore5:28
xG 0.31–0.19 (62%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo10:03
xG 0.54–0.55 (50%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Cammalleri – Lewis – Shore2:11
xG 0.01–0.13 (9%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Pearson – Kempe6:41
xG 0.25–0.51 (33%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Forbort8:46
xG 0.35–0.28 (56%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty2:12
xG 0.11–0.13 (45%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Doughty – Fantenberg6:37
xG 0.14–0.26 (35%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestCogliano – Silfverberg – Wagner9:33
xG 0.66–0.23 (74%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Perry – Grant – Rakell8:08
xG 0.49–0.25 (66%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Vermette – Shaw – Ritchie7:24
xG 0.42–0.40 (51%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm12:47
xG 0.85–0.49 (64%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Montour9:45
xG 0.50–0.21 (70%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Vatanen11:15
xG 0.57–0.63 (47%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).