Wed, Nov 8, 2017·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Minnesota Wild 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 19 | 014 | 114 | 237 |
| TOR | 16 | 16 | 27 | 419 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:56TORNazem KadriAssists: Morgan Rielly, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–1
- P1 18:15MINJason ZuckerAssists: Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 3:47TORPatrick MarleauAssists: Zach Hyman, Connor Brown · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 3:40TORConnor CarrickGWGAssists: Dominic Moore · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 15:01MINJason ZuckerPPAssists: Eric Staal, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.50 xG2–3
- P3 19:29TORConnor BrownENUnassisted · Snap, 0.63 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:26MINNino Niederreiter: Boarding2 min
- P2 5:55TORAndreas Borgman: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:24TORTyler Bozak: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:35TORAndreas Borgman: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:48MINNino Niederreiter: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:36TORConnor Carrick: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brown won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Zucker – Niederreiter3:43
xG 0.33–0.06 (84%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Winnik – Eriksson Ek – Kunin11:33
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Stewart – Zucker7:37
xG 0.45–0.27 (62%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Cullen – Ennis – Foligno5:37
xG 0.28–0.14 (67%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Olofsson10:04
xG 1.00–0.47 (68%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Brodin – Dumba16:12
xG 0.62–0.26 (71%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon16:48
xG 0.91–0.63 (59%)attempts 19–10goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Martin – Leivo7:03
xG 0.26–0.18 (59%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Nylander11:12
xG 0.51–0.51 (50%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner9:15
xG 0.17–0.21 (45%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Marleau – Hyman – Brown9:52
xG 0.34–1.15 (23%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Rielly2:39
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Zaitsev17:04
xG 0.47–0.66 (42%)attempts 16–18goals 1–0
- Carrick – Borgman8:49
xG 0.16–0.54 (22%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).