Wed, Nov 8, 2017·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, San Jose Sharks 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 17 | 314 | 19 | 530 |
| SJS | 111 | 09 | 013 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:25SJSJoonas DonskoiAssists: Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P1 7:17TBLJake DotchinAssists: Brayden Point, Yanni Gourde · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 0:44TBLNikita KucherovGWGAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 9:21TBLSlater KoekkoekAssists: Yanni Gourde, Anton Stralman · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 12:00TBLVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–1
- P3 6:14TBLVladislav NamestnikovPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.20 xG5–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:03SJSTim Heed: Holding2 min
- P1 16:52TBLSlater Koekkoek: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:33SJSJoonas Donskoi: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:00TBLYanni Gourde: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:42SJSMartin Jones: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 4:48SJSJoe Thornton: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Kucherov – Namestnikov12:32
xG 0.47–0.26 (64%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Brown4:47
xG 0.21–0.08 (72%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Palat – Gourde – Point11:09
xG 0.49–0.42 (53%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Callahan – Brown6:16
xG 0.17–0.23 (42%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Dotchin2:41
xG 0.22–0.11 (67%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Stralman – Sergachev8:20
xG 0.54–0.46 (54%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Stralman – Koekkoek4:24
xG 0.08–0.04 (68%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestBoedker – Tierney – Meier11:46
xG 0.53–0.25 (68%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Ward – Hansen – Goodrow9:55
xG 0.38–0.29 (56%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Donskoi11:42
xG 0.69–0.62 (53%)attempts 16–15goals 1–1
- Couture – Hertl – Karlsson9:53
xG 0.12–0.49 (19%)attempts 10–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Heed14:57
xG 0.56–0.45 (55%)attempts 18–13goals 0–1
- Burns – Ryan14:43
xG 0.83–0.74 (53%)attempts 23–10goals 1–1
- Vlasic – Braun14:14
xG 0.33–0.56 (37%)attempts 15–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).