Thu, Nov 9, 2017·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Chicago Blackhawks 1, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 012 | 111 | 016 | 139 |
| PHI | 216 | 15 | 010 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:58PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 12:08PHIJakub VoracekGWGAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Claude Giroux · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 3:51PHISean CouturierAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–3
- P2 16:13CHIConnor MurphyAssists: Lance Bouma, Jan Rutta · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:35CHITommy Wingels: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:35PHIJakub Voracek: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:04PHITravis Sanheim: Interference2 min
- P2 16:59PHIRadko Gudas: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:15PHIIvan Provorov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 3:27CHIJonathan Toews: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:01PHITravis Konecny: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:29CHITommy Wingels: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Panik – Saad3:18
xG 0.45–0.06 (88%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Panik – DeBrincat6:50
xG 0.33–0.02 (93%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Toews – Kane – Saad9:46
xG 0.59–0.34 (63%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Bouma – Hartman – Schmaltz5:24
xG 0.18–0.12 (61%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestForsling – Rutta6:07
xG 0.37–0.08 (82%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Franson – Murphy11:56
xG 0.88–0.70 (55%)attempts 19–11goals 0–1
- Keith – Seabrook5:09
xG 0.22–0.06 (79%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Simmonds – Konecny11:13
xG 0.93–0.42 (69%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Laughton – Leier – Raffl9:55
xG 0.48–0.29 (63%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier13:12
xG 0.51–0.52 (49%)attempts 12–15goals 3–0
- Lehtera – Weise – Weal8:15
xG 0.27–0.43 (39%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHagg – Provorov13:01
xG 0.87–0.39 (69%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Gudas – Sanheim14:25
xG 0.67–0.62 (52%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Manning – Gostisbehere14:07
xG 0.17–0.72 (19%)attempts 6–24goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).