Thu, Nov 9, 2017·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 414 | 019 | 110 | 543 |
| LAK | 09 | 16 | 19 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:27TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Steven Stamkos, Slater Koekkoek · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 10:01TBLAlex KillornAssists: Dan Girardi, Tyler Johnson · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–0
- P1 10:35TBLVictor HedmanGWGAssists: Yanni Gourde, Ondrej Palat · Snap, 0.07 xG3–0
- P1 11:29TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Alex Killorn, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.14 xG4–0
- P2 17:31LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Anze Kopitar, Jake Muzzin · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–1
- P3 8:39LAKOscar FantenbergAssists: Dustin Brown, Brooks Laich · Snap, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 12:59TBLVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Snap, 0.07 xG5–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:42TBLAlex Killorn: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:21LAKNic Dowd: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 8:21TBLVictor Hedman: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 10:35LAKMichael Amadio: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P2 2:13LAKJake Muzzin: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:36LAKAndy Andreoff: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:36TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:00LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:20LAKAlec Martinez: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:55TBLSteven Stamkos: Interference2 min
- P3 14:14TBLYanni Gourde: Interference2 min
- P3 17:05LAKJonathan Quick: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Shore
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Kucherov – Namestnikov10:50
xG 1.15–0.33 (77%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Palat – Gourde – Point11:33
xG 0.38–0.16 (71%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Brown2:06
xG 0.12–0.08 (61%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Dumont – Brown8:51
xG 0.31–0.35 (47%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Sergachev8:38
xG 0.48–0.22 (68%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Coburn – Girardi9:40
xG 0.66–0.45 (60%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Stralman – Koekkoek2:40
xG 0.12–0.05 (72%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestLaich – Brown – Pearson2:54
xG 0.13–0.07 (63%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Cammalleri – Laich – Dowd2:55
xG 0.08–0.06 (54%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Lewis – Andreoff – Shore8:48
xG 0.26–0.30 (46%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo3:20
xG 0.08–0.19 (31%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Muzzin – Fantenberg6:25
xG 0.35–0.34 (51%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Martinez – Forbort2:04
xG 0.01–0.11 (10%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Doughty – Forbort13:44
xG 0.40–0.64 (39%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).