Fri, Nov 10, 2017·Capital One Arena, Washington
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Washington Capitals 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 07 | 19 | 012 | 128 |
| WSH | 19 | 112 | 210 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:09WSHJohn CarlsonPPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Alex Ovechkin · Slap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 8:26PITPhil KesselAssists: Bryan Rust, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 18:09WSHT.J. OshiePPGWGAssists: John Carlson, Lars Eller · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 13:42WSHChandler StephensonAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Taylor Chorney · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 17:18WSHJakub VranaENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.70 xG1–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:26WSHDmitry Orlov: Tripping2 min
- P1 4:30PITPatric Hornqvist: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:26PITRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 10:26WSHLiam O'Brien: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:01PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:06WSHTom Wilson: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:37PITPatric Hornqvist: Interference2 min
- P2 14:10PITKris Letang: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:10PITKris Letang: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:16WSHJakub Vrana: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 4:16WSHMadison Bowey: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:45PITConor Sheary: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Hornqvist – Guentzel8:31
xG 0.75–0.27 (74%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Reaves – McKegg – Kuhnhackl5:26
xG 0.12–0.03 (80%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Sheary3:47
xG 0.16–0.12 (59%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Guentzel2:55
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Ruhwedel5:30
xG 0.30–0.21 (59%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Cole – Schultz8:30
xG 0.33–0.30 (52%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Ruhwedel2:57
xG 0.04–0.03 (56%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Backstrom – Stephenson8:40
xG 0.31–0.22 (58%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Eller – Wilson – Vrana7:01
xG 0.29–0.31 (48%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Beagle – Chiasson – O'Brien3:54
xG 0.03–0.09 (24%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Smith-Pelly12:01
xG 0.52–0.82 (39%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Carlson12:50
xG 0.77–0.32 (70%)attempts 20–13goals 0–0
- Carlson – Djoos2:23
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Chorney – Djoos5:29
xG 0.26–0.11 (71%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).