Fri, Nov 10, 2017·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 012 | 19 | 28 | 329 |
| CBJ | 18 | 07 | 011 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:35CBJBrandon DubinskyAssists: Tyler Motte, Markus Hannikainen · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 3:50CARJordan StaalAssists: Noah Hanifin, Teuvo Teravainen · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 8:54CARJordan StaalGWGAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 19:35CARBrock McGinnENAssists: Justin Williams, Derek Ryan · Backhand, 0.55 xG3–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 14:21CARJosh Jooris: Holding2 min
- P2 13:16CARTrevor van Riemsdyk: Holding2 min
- P3 2:21CBJBoone Jenner: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Rask – Lindholm3:28
xG 0.24–0.00 (99%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Aho12:39
xG 0.90–0.84 (52%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Skinner – Lindholm – Ryan5:29
xG 0.02–0.19 (11%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Kruger – Nordstrom – Jooris9:22
xG 0.27–0.52 (35%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Faulk – Fleury10:50
xG 0.38–0.33 (53%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Fleury4:43
xG 0.24–0.27 (48%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Faulk – Hanifin5:47
xG 0.32–0.54 (37%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner7:33
xG 1.09–0.13 (89%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Anderson – Motte – Dubois3:32
xG 0.42–0.03 (93%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Wennberg – Panarin6:14
xG 0.30–0.04 (89%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Foligno – Wennberg – Panarin4:54
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Nutivaara12:38
xG 1.18–0.50 (70%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Jones – Werenski17:27
xG 1.05–0.56 (65%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
- Johnson – Savard13:12
xG 0.41–0.34 (55%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).