Fri, Nov 10, 2017·American Airlines Center, Dallas
New York Islanders 0, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 04 | 06 | 04 | 014 |
| DAL | 313 | 210 | 06 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:32DALJohn KlingbergGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 14:58DALGemel SmithAssists: Alexander Radulov, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P1 16:58DALEsa LindellAssists: John Klingberg, Martin Hanzal · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–3
- P2 6:54DALMattias JanmarkSHUnassisted · Slap, 0.17 xG0–4
- P2 16:00DALJason SpezzaPPAssists: Esa Lindell, Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:16DALAlexander Radulov: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 1:21NYIAnders Lee: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:06DALAlexander Radulov: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:55DALAlexander Radulov: Holding2 min
- P2 14:11NYIAnthony Beauvillier: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 1:01NYIAnders Lee: Delaying game2 min
- P3 10:27NYIScott Mayfield: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:50DALMattias Janmark: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Quine
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee8:22
xG 0.20–0.23 (47%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Ladd – Quine – Beauvillier6:34
xG 0.13–0.17 (43%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Chimera – Clutterbuck – Cizikas7:03
xG 0.18–0.34 (35%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Eberle – Nelson – Barzal9:48
xG 0.29–0.57 (34%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Pulock9:07
xG 0.40–0.04 (91%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Leddy – Pulock4:07
xG 0.09–0.10 (47%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- de Haan – Mayfield13:32
xG 0.41–0.58 (42%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Hanzal – Elie7:02
xG 0.56–0.01 (98%)attempts 17–3goals 1–0
- Radulov – Benn – Smith7:37
xG 0.16–0.12 (56%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Roussel – Ritchie – Faksa8:15
xG 0.21–0.20 (51%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Seguin – Shore – Janmark11:05
xG 0.40–0.48 (45%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Pateryn15:22
xG 0.96–0.19 (83%)attempts 22–10goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell13:45
xG 0.37–0.43 (46%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Johns – Oleksiak14:15
xG 0.26–0.48 (35%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).