Fri, Nov 10, 2017·Ericsson Globe, StockholmNeutral site
Ottawa Senators 4, Colorado Avalanche 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 29 | 112 | 010 | 11 | 432 |
| COL | 111 | 13 | 15 | 00 | 319 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:16COLNail YakupovPPAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Colin Wilson · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 8:36OTTFredrik ClaessonAssists: Mike Hoffman, Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 15:10OTTMark StoneAssists: Johnny Oduya, Chris Wideman · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 9:41COLAlexander KerfootAssists: Blake Comeau, Samuel Girard · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 13:21OTTChristopher DiDomenicoAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Tom Pyatt · Wrist, 0.33 xG3–2
- P3 12:53COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–3
- OT 0:59OTTMark StoneGWGAssists: Derick Brassard, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.13 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:15OTTMike Hoffman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 6:46OTTAlexandre Burrows: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:19COLJ.T. Compher: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:56COLGabriel Bourque: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:33OTTChris Wideman: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – DiDomenico – Pageau3:11
xG 0.47–0.02 (96%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Brassard – Stone – Dzingel13:00
xG 0.78–0.38 (67%)attempts 22–11goals 1–0
- Smith – Hoffman – Duchene4:38
xG 0.29–0.23 (56%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- DiDomenico – Hoffman – Duchene4:37
xG 0.25–0.23 (53%)attempts 7–3goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Claesson12:53
xG 0.45–0.23 (67%)attempts 17–7goals 1–1
- Oduya – Ceci3:18
xG 0.23–0.05 (83%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Oduya – Phaneuf9:44
xG 0.60–0.51 (54%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Bourque – Grimaldi6:39
xG 0.38–0.16 (70%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen15:46
xG 0.48–0.37 (56%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Yakupov – Kerfoot – Andrighetto9:34
xG 0.27–0.60 (31%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Comeau – Nieto – Compher12:26
xG 0.07–0.93 (7%)attempts 8–19goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- Johnson – Barberio15:01
xG 0.52–0.54 (49%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
- Barberio – Bigras2:22
xG 0.10–0.18 (36%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Johnson – Zadorov4:29
xG 0.05–0.15 (24%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).