Fri, Nov 10, 2017·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Winnipeg Jets 2, Vegas Golden Knights 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 111 | 15 | 013 | 229 |
| VGK | 27 | 315 | 05 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:41VGKLuca SbisaAssists: David Perron, Tomas Nosek · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 15:08VGKDavid PerronAssists: Deryk Engelland, Erik Haula · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 15:47WPGAdam LowryAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Brandon Tanev · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 12:17VGKWilliam KarlssonGWGAssists: Deryk Engelland, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–3
- P2 13:57WPGPatrik LainePPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P2 16:45VGKJames NealPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P2 17:47VGKWilliam KarlssonSHAssists: Reilly Smith, Luca Sbisa · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 17:33VGKBrayden McNabb: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:33VGKLuca Sbisa: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 5:08WPGAdam Lowry: Interference2 min
- P2 6:14WPGJosh Morrissey: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:53VGKWilliam Carrier: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:54WPGKyle Connor: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:56VGKCody Eakin: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:01VGKJonathan Marchessault: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:39VGKColin Miller: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:47WPGToby Enstrom: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Haula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Copp – Tanev9:40
xG 0.41–0.23 (64%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Little – Ehlers – Laine10:27
xG 0.29–0.45 (39%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Matthias – Armia8:17
xG 0.06–0.34 (15%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor8:43
xG 0.19–0.60 (24%)attempts 5–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Myers – Kulikov10:38
xG 0.30–0.33 (47%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Trouba – Morrissey11:20
xG 0.19–0.37 (34%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien14:01
xG 0.33–0.78 (30%)attempts 14–10goals 0–2
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestCarrier – Bellemare – Nosek7:15
xG 0.34–0.18 (66%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault9:32
xG 0.25–0.09 (73%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Neal – Perron – Haula11:08
xG 0.31–0.19 (62%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Eakin – Lindberg – Tuch8:11
xG 0.21–0.22 (48%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – McNabb15:25
xG 0.87–0.46 (65%)attempts 11–17goals 2–0
- Miller – Hunt11:49
xG 0.44–0.28 (61%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Sbisa – Schmidt13:03
xG 0.25–0.22 (53%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).