Sat, Nov 11, 2017·TD Garden, Boston
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Boston Bruins 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 26 | 011 | 28 | 425 |
| BOS | 113 | 013 | 013 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:52TORMitch MarnerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 14:16TORJames van RiemsdykPPGWGAssists: Nazem Kadri, Morgan Rielly · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–0
- P1 15:18BOSFrank VatranoAssists: Torey Krug, Kevan Miller · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 6:52TORMorgan RiellyAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 18:13TORPatrick MarleauENAssists: Zach Hyman, Leo Komarov · Tip-in, 0.73 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:12BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:12TORLeo Komarov: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:53TORNazem Kadri: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:09BOSBrandon Carlo: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:10BOSBrad Marchand: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:01TORMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:01BOSMatt Beleskey: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:06BOSFrank Vatrano: Interference2 min
- P3 2:46TORAndreas Borgman: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:39TORDominic Moore: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:07TORTyler Bozak: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nash won the faceoff against Nylander
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner9:31
xG 0.23–0.04 (84%)attempts 9–4goals 2–0
- Marleau – Hyman – Brown7:00
xG 0.26–0.35 (43%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Marleau – Komarov – Nylander4:25
xG 0.04–0.18 (20%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Moore – Martin – Leivo5:43
xG 0.19–0.42 (31%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gardiner – Carrick2:55
xG 0.02–0.01 (79%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Carrick – Borgman9:06
xG 0.26–0.28 (48%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- Hainsey – Zaitsev2:07
xG 0.09–0.24 (28%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak11:25
xG 0.98–0.25 (80%)attempts 20–6goals 0–0
- Beleskey – Kuraly – Bjork7:15
xG 0.58–0.10 (86%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Nash – Schaller – Acciari5:47
xG 0.23–0.09 (71%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Szwarz – Heinen – Vatrano9:13
xG 0.09–0.10 (50%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Krug11:22
xG 1.03–0.10 (91%)attempts 23–6goals 1–0
- Chara – McAvoy14:29
xG 0.72–0.28 (72%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Krug – Carlo4:16
xG 0.19–0.17 (52%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).