Sat, Nov 11, 2017·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Detroit Red Wings 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 113 | 09 | 08 | 02 | 2 | 232 |
| DET | 011 | 012 | 17 | 03 | 1 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:07CBJArtemi PanarinAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, David Savard · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P3 6:11DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Tomas Tatar · Snap, 0.14 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. DET Frans Nielsen scored
- 2. CBJ Cam Atkinson stopped
- 3. DET Andreas Athanasiou stopped
- 4. CBJ Artemi Panarin scored
- 5. DET Gustav Nyquist stopped
- 6. CBJ Oliver Bjorkstrand stopped
- 7. DET Henrik Zetterberg stopped
- 8. CBJ Zach Werenski stopped
- 9. DET Tomas Tatar stopped
- 10. CBJ Brandon Dubinsky stopped
- 11. DET Dylan Larkin stopped
- 12. CBJ Alexander Wennberg stopped
- 13. DET Anthony Mantha stopped
- 14. CBJ Boone Jenner stopped
- 15. DET Martin Frk stopped
- 16. CBJ Nick Foligno stopped
- 17. DET Trevor Daley stopped
- 18. CBJ Jack Johnson scored
Penalties (3)
- P1 11:37DETLuke Glendening: Interference2 min
- P1 19:17DETMike Green: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- OT 4:45DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestBjorkstrand – Wennberg – Panarin14:55
xG 0.47–0.30 (62%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Foligno – Anderson – Dubois12:46
xG 0.26–0.10 (72%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Motte – Wennberg – Hannikainen2:50
xG 0.05–0.02 (73%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner14:45
xG 0.43–0.60 (42%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Nutivaara12:20
xG 0.82–0.06 (93%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Murray – Carlsson2:22
xG 0.01–0.01 (69%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski20:06
xG 0.22–0.38 (36%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Nyquist – Mantha11:58
xG 0.83–0.21 (80%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Tatar – Athanasiou – Larkin11:39
xG 0.65–0.28 (70%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Zetterberg – Wilson – Frk2:40
xG 0.03–0.04 (42%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Glendening10:34
xG 0.24–0.33 (42%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Ouellet11:42
xG 1.00–0.57 (64%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Jensen7:37
xG 0.26–0.08 (78%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Ericsson – Witkowski2:00
xG 0.11–0.01 (90%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).