Sat, Nov 11, 2017·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
New York Islanders 5, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 312 | 112 | 15 | 529 |
| STL | 012 | 114 | 111 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:21NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 10:07NYICasey CizikasAssists: Nick Leddy · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–0
- P1 13:18NYIJordan EberleGWGAssists: Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–0
- P2 3:35NYIJoshua Ho-SangAssists: Alan Quine, Nick Leddy · Snap, 0.24 xG4–0
- P2 11:31STLBrayden SchennAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–1
- P3 6:41STLScottie UpshallAssists: Robert Bortuzzo, Kyle Brodziak · Tip-in, 0.23 xG4–2
- P3 15:33NYIAnders LeeAssists: Adam Pelech, Calvin de Haan · Tip-in, 0.07 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:23NYIJason Chimera: Holding2 min
- P2 10:32STLScottie Upshall: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:32NYIJohnny Boychuk: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:45NYIDennis Seidenberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:01STLJaden Schwartz: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:43NYIMathew Barzal: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:43STLScottie Upshall: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:42NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Clutterbuck – Cizikas7:45
xG 0.44–0.26 (63%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee13:40
xG 0.40–0.32 (56%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Ladd – Eberle – Barzal11:02
xG 0.30–0.25 (55%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Nelson – Quine – Ho-Sang10:28
xG 0.02–0.58 (4%)attempts 2–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy15:39
xG 0.67–0.43 (61%)attempts 16–12goals 2–0
- de Haan – Pelech13:35
xG 0.32–0.28 (53%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- Seidenberg – Mayfield13:12
xG 0.32–0.85 (27%)attempts 11–21goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Upshall – Brodziak6:03
xG 0.38–0.07 (85%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz14:03
xG 0.45–0.33 (58%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Paajarvi – Jaskin – Sundqvist7:56
xG 0.27–0.28 (49%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Steen – Stastny – Sobotka9:48
xG 0.29–0.65 (31%)attempts 6–9goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Bortuzzo6:41
xG 0.51–0.23 (69%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Edmundson – Parayko14:52
xG 0.56–0.31 (64%)attempts 12–9goals 0–3
- Gunnarsson – Pietrangelo6:02
xG 0.18–0.05 (78%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).