Sun, Nov 12, 2017·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
San Jose Sharks 2, Los Angeles Kings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 04 | 015 | 214 | 233 |
| LAK | 18 | 011 | 08 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:30LAKDustin BrownPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–1
- P3 5:42SJSMelker KarlssonAssists: Tomas Hertl, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 12:50SJSJoel WardGWGAssists: Barclay Goodrow, Joakim Ryan · Tip-in, 0.04 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:49SJSTim Heed: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:16LAKDrew Doughty: Interference2 min
- P1 17:03SJSJoonas Donskoi: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:19LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:46SJSJoe Pavelski: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:42SJSJoel Ward: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 6:07LAKNicholas Shore: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWard – Goodrow – Meier6:44
xG 0.68–0.17 (80%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Pavelski – Couture – Hertl8:52
xG 0.36–0.20 (64%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Couture – Hertl – Karlsson2:38
xG 0.17–0.10 (63%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Labanc2:12
xG 0.05–0.02 (67%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun13:30
xG 0.66–0.17 (79%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Burns – Ryan17:11
xG 1.05–0.80 (57%)attempts 19–24goals 1–0
- Braun – Dillon2:44
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestLewis – Andreoff – Shore7:44
xG 0.26–0.19 (57%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Pearson – Kempe10:18
xG 0.60–0.54 (53%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Laich – Dowd2:33
xG 0.18–0.12 (59%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo12:30
xG 0.19–0.68 (22%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Muzzin – Doughty3:26
xG 0.02–0.07 (26%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Forbort – Fantenberg2:26
xG 0.01–0.14 (8%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Doughty – Forbort13:06
xG 0.40–0.54 (43%)attempts 19–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).