Mon, Nov 13, 2017·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Dallas Stars 1, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 09 | 16 | 011 | 126 |
| CAR | 19 | 010 | 49 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:07CARSebastian AhoAssists: Jordan Staal, Teuvo Teravainen · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 8:44DALAlexander RadulovPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn · Snap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 2:39CARTeuvo TeravainenPPGWGAssists: Jordan Staal, Sebastian Aho · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 6:51CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 9:44CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Jordan Staal, Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.12 xG1–4
- P3 19:57CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk, Elias Lindholm · Snap, 0.05 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:49CARMarcus Kruger: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 16:17DALDan Hamhuis: Interference2 min
- P1 17:25CARElias Lindholm: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:28DALMartin Hanzal: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:07DALGemel Smith: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:51CARJustin Williams: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:51DALStephen Johns: Illegal check to head2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSeguin – Shore – Janmark6:26
xG 0.29–0.13 (68%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Smith6:49
xG 0.18–0.05 (77%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Spezza – Shore – Janmark3:09
xG 0.12–0.03 (79%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Hanzal – Ritchie – Smith2:50
xG 0.12–0.08 (59%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Pateryn13:51
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Johns – Oleksiak15:16
xG 0.40–0.52 (44%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell14:18
xG 0.27–0.75 (26%)attempts 8–15goals 0–3
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Teravainen – Aho11:14
xG 0.50–0.27 (65%)attempts 8–8goals 3–0
- Williams – McGinn – Ryan8:49
xG 0.34–0.11 (75%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Kruger – Nordstrom – Jooris7:47
xG 0.10–0.12 (46%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Skinner – Rask – Lindholm9:42
xG 0.31–0.42 (42%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Hanifin13:52
xG 0.71–0.47 (60%)attempts 18–14goals 2–0
- Slavin – Pesce14:31
xG 0.39–0.49 (45%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Faulk – Fleury14:00
xG 0.12–0.31 (29%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).