Mon, Nov 13, 2017·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
St. Louis Blues 4, Calgary Flames 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 29 | 04 | 211 | 424 |
| CGY | 212 | 08 | 517 | 737 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:32STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Colton Parayko, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 4:54CGYMark JankowskiAssists: Matthew Tkachuk · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 13:45CGYMark JankowskiAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P1 16:21STLJaden SchwartzPPAssists: Alexander Steen, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 5:39CGYSam BennettAssists: Mark Jankowski · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–3
- P3 11:46STLAlexander SteenAssists: Paul Stastny, Joel Edmundson · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–3
- P3 12:31CGYMicheal FerlandPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.35 xG3–4
- P3 12:43STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Brayden Schenn · Slap, 0.10 xG4–4
- P3 14:29CGYKris VersteegGWGAssists: Troy Brouwer, Curtis Lazar · Slap, 0.07 xG4–5
- P3 18:00CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–6
- P3 18:57CGYMichael FrolikENAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.70 xG4–7
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:00STLScottie Upshall: Interference2 min
- P1 3:00CGYTravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:10CGYTJ Brodie: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:58STLBeau Bennett: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 9:18STLVladimir Sobotka: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:04STLOskar Sundqvist: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 12:04CGYBrett Kulak: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:04STLOskar Sundqvist: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Stastny – Tarasenko6:17
xG 0.13–0.06 (69%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz6:40
xG 0.30–0.23 (57%)attempts 11–4goals 1–1
- Sobotka – Jaskin – Sundqvist6:22
xG 0.31–0.25 (55%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Steen – Stastny – Sobotka5:23
xG 0.03–0.07 (29%)attempts 3–2goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Parayko – Dunn7:12
xG 0.09–0.15 (38%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Dunn7:13
xG 0.32–0.39 (45%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Pietrangelo – Edmundson8:50
xG 0.27–0.35 (44%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan9:22
xG 0.09–0.05 (63%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Jagr – Jankowski – Bennett11:34
xG 0.55–0.53 (51%)attempts 10–15goals 2–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk12:05
xG 0.65–0.63 (51%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Versteeg – Brouwer – Lazar7:57
xG 0.24–0.32 (43%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton15:44
xG 0.86–0.32 (73%)attempts 18–12goals 1–1
- Stone – Kulak3:45
xG 0.41–0.07 (86%)attempts 7–2goals 2–0
- Stone – Brodie12:57
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).